The MLB All-Star break is the perfect natural pause – for athletes and for baseball bettors – to assess their successes and failures before regrouping for the postseason push.
For players, that’s time with family or maybe a mini vacation somewhere. For bettors like you and me, it’s a gander at a dwindling bankroll, a long look in the mirror, some water splashed in the face, and an obtuse pep talk about how we'll kill it in the second half.
But before the second-half sprint begins, let’s check out some of the best and worst bets from MLB’s first half and analyze how viable those odds are going forward.
MLB Best First-Half Bets
You would’ve cashed big if you anted up on these markets.
Paul Skenes Anything...
Skenes' stardom can no longer be denied. The righty owns a 1.90 ERA through 11 big-league starts with 12.1 K/9 and became the first rookie to ever start the All-Star Game. Naturally, Skenes aced that test, spinning a scoreless first inning, retiring stars like Aaron Judge and Gunnar Henderson with ease.
But that’s not all. Skenes' futures odds have gone bananas. On March 28 (before he got called up), Skenes was +3000 to win NL ROTY. Then he debuted, and his odds rose to +1500. A few more good starts and his value shortened to +800. Now, he's -1000 to win the award. Skenes is also in the top three for the NL Cy Young odds, too, and I don't hate that bet, given his trajectory.
Congratulations if you bet him early. You made a killing.
Philadelphia Phillies to win World Series (+1500 In Preseason)
The Phillies have rocked the same core roster for years now, with Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber leading the charge. As usual, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been great, but several secondary players have taken massive leaps this season, catapulting the Phils from +1500 World Series odds in spring training to now a top-three spot on the odds board (+450).
Alec Bohm is the main man on offense batting .295 with an MLB-leading 33 doubles, while back-end rotation guys, such as Ranger Suarez (2.6 bWAR) and Cristopher Sanchez (1.9 bWAR) have stepped it up big time.
Guardians to win the AL Central (+375 in Preseason)
Now, I believe in Cleveland, but nobody did before this season, when the Guardians were listed at +375 to win the AL Central. Oh, how the tables have turned, and the Guards hold a 4.5-game edge on the Twins for top spot in the division.
Steven Kwan (.920 OPS), David Fry (.853) and Jose Ramirez (.842) have carried this sneaky offense, while the club's middling rotation is backed by the best bullpen in baseball. Emmanuel Clase (0.81 ERA) is once again one of baseball's best closers, and he's now joined by a cast of stingy relievers that have made it nearly impossible for opponents to score.
Cleveland is now -225 to win the AL Central.
MLB Worst First-Half Bets
These bets were all big stinkers in the first half.
Blue Jays to make playoffs (-145)
You can kiss this money goodbye! One of baseball's biggest disappointments, the Blue Jays entered the All-Star break 9.5 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot and a whopping 14 games back of the Orioles for the AL East lead. Shockingly, the Jays are now the worst team in the AL East and are on the cusp of selling at the trade deadline. Oof.
Any Jays bet this year was ill-advised, but betting them to make the playoffs at -145 seems like the biggest flop. We can also give a hat tip to the Jays' OVER 87.5 wins (-115), as that's also off the table.
Chris Flexen... Or Any White Sox Bet
Congrats to Flexen, who accepted the torch as the most automatic fade in baseball and put a new losing twist on it. The White Sox have been a generally brutal squad (-$3,282), but Flexen has been especially brutal with a 2-8 record. The Sox are 2-18 SU when Flexen starts, and he's now officially the least profitable pitcher in the majors with a balance of -$1,215 if you bet $100 on each of his starts.
This isn’t such a bad bet if you’ve been fading Flexen this whole time. And for those who haven’t done it yet, the time is nigh. Light the torches; Sir Flexen starts every five days.
