Best & Worst MLB Bets of 2019’s First Half
With the first half of the 2019 Major League Baseball season in the can, it’s time to take a look back at the best and worst money-makers of the season and analyze whether we can depend on some of these spots going forward.
It’s not realistic to expect betting trends to be preserved throughout an entire 162-game regular season and the value is drying up on some overachieving teams, but I’ve pinpointed a few betting situations to have on your radar during the second half.
Before I break those down, here’s the most and least profitable bets across many different bet types entering the second half (profit amounts are based on $100 bets):
| Bet Type | Most Profitable | Least Profitable |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Game Moneyline | Rangers: $1380 | Royals: -$1825 |
| Home Moneyline | Rangers: $1538 | Tigers: -$1764 |
| Away Moneyline | Twins: $867 | Mets: -$1284 |
| Moneyline Favorite | Braves: $1036 | Padres: -$765 |
| Moneyline Underdog | Twins: $1030 | Orioles: -$1777 |
| Full-Game Runline | Yankees: $1721 | Red Sox: -1814.96 |
| Full-Game Runline Favorite | Yankees: $2358 | Red Sox: -$1375 |
| Full-Game Runline Underdog | Twins: $601 | Orioles: -$1608 |
| F5 Moneyline | A’s: $1117 | Tigers: -$2062 |
| F5 Home | Rangers: $1195 | Tigers: -$1377 |
| F5 Away | Diamondbacks: $694 | Cardinals: -$1208 |
| Day Games | Pirates: $631 | Mariners: -$1084 |
| Starting Pitcher (Full-Game) | Andrew Cashner: $1219 | Chris Sale: -$954 |
| Starting Pitcher (F5) | Andrew Cashner: $954 | Aaron Sanchez: -$908 |
| Bet Type | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| Full Game | Mariners: $1916 | Reds: $1950 |
| Full Game Home | Pirates: $1309 | Reds: $832 |
| Full Game Away | Yankees: $1528 | Marlins: $1140 |
| Starting Pitcher Full Game | Eduardo Rodriguez: $1071 | Shane Bieber: $777 |
| F5 | Pirates: $1655 | Reds: $863 |
| F5 Home | Pirates: $1614 | Reds: $1011 |
| F5 Away | Twins: $1400 | Marlins: $713 |
| Starting Pitcher F5 | Brandon Woodruff: $652 | Yonny Chirinos: $758.70 |
Rangers — MLB’s Best Moneyline Bet:
Texas is the league’s most profitable team due in large part to going 28-34 as an underdog. Those 62 games as an underdog account for 69 percent of their games so far. So, surely oddsmakers will make an adjustment here, right? I’m not so sure about that.
Since June 8, they’ve been an underdog 22 times (75 percent of their games), including multiple times at home and in three straight games vs the 41-46 Cincinnati Reds. All this despite being six games above .500 and within striking distance of a playoff spot.
It’s impossible for me to determine what their lines will be for second-half games, but I’m assuming we’ll continue to see them undervalued on a regular basis. Obviously, we can’t blindly bet them as every matchup is different, but if the stats support a bet, fire away.
Chris Sale — MLB’s Least Profitable Starter:
The Red Sox have lost 12 of Sale’s 18 starts and he’s closed as a favorite in every single start. This includes being a favorite of -200 or more on 12 occasions, with seven of those starts resulting in a loss.
So, what’s up with that?
Well, his ERA is almost double what it was last season and the Red Sox bullpen went from having a 3.72 ERA in 2018 to a 4.44 mark with the second-most blown saves in the league. Yet, there’s been no adjustment from oddsmakers — in each of his last six starts, the Red Sox closed at -250 or higher. I don’t anticipate this changing too much in the second half.
I’ve been on the right side of fading Sale on a handful of occasions and will continue to look to fade him, especially when he’s facing a team that hits lefties well. Oddsmakers overvalue him based on reputation and he’s not living up to it.
Yankees — MLB’s best runline favorite bet:
The Yankees ended the first half on an insane 16-4 run, covering -1.5 in 14 of the wins, and I believe they’ll continue to OBLITERATE the league in the second half. The question then is what kind of odds should we expect to see their runlines at if they continue on this tear?
Obviously in their upcoming series with the Orioles, Blue Jays and Tigers, the runline odds will be quite high, but I expect to see fair numbers in their remaining games with the Red Sox — who’ve been overvalued all season — and the Rays, who were a favorite in two out of the four games in their series vs the Yanks before the break.
The scary thing about this team is that it should get better. The bullpen, which is supposed to be at an all-time-great level, only ranks 10th in ERA, while the modern-day Bash Brothers — Judge and Stanton — have combined for only 10 of the Yanks’ 149 home runs. Things could get out of hand as it looks like a World Series-or-bust season for the Bronx Bombers.
Mariners — MLB’s best OVER bet:
Seattle’s O/U record stands at 57-31-6 at the break, good enough for an OVER percentage of 64.7, but this trend has begun to slow down significantly. Over the Mariners’ last 11 games, the total only went OVER twice and seven of these 11 totals were set below 10.
This by no means indicates their days as a solid OVER bet are done, as whatever numbers the oddsmakers set will ultimately determine that, but their hitting has cooled off significantly. Up until May 20, they ranked first in runs and home runs and sixth in OPS. Since then, they rank 19th in runs and 29th in OPS.
I think we’ll see this number even out over the next few months, but one Mariners OVER spot to keep on your radar is when Yusei Kikuchi starts, as the OVER has hit in 14 of his 19 starts.
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