Let's finish the week with a few MLB home run prop winners.
I'm honing in on two hot batters who have more of an edge tonight than you'd initially think. The starters they're facing have low ERAs, but are better HR fades than usual.
I've got a pair of homer picks for tonight's games, so follow along for my two home run prop bets for May 24th:
Pick 1: Paul DeJong To Homer (+450)
White Sox vs Orioles Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:40 pm ET
This is a value play, no doubt. I’m not going to find myself betting on many Paul DeJong homers, but I like the line tonight at +450.
DeJong has faced Orioles starter Corbin Burnes in 19 at-bats during his career, registering three extra-base hits and two homers. DeJong owns a career 1.034 OPS against Burnes.
The problem: Burnes is really, really good. He hasn’t allowed a homer in his last three outings, though those starts came against truly bad offenses in Seattle, Toronto, and Washington. And, Burnes is great but he has allowed six homers in 20 starts this year. So, he’s not untouchable.
Pick 2: Rafael Devers To Homer (+250)
Brewers vs Red Sox Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
Brewers starter Bryse Wilson has been pretty solid this season, rocking a 2.79 ERA. But, I think he’s a great homer bet spot.
Wilson has allowed six homers in six starts (12 appearances) this year, and allowed nine dingers in just 76 innings last year. Last time Wilson was a full-time starter (in 2021), the Milwaukee starter let up 20 HR in 20 outings.
The guy I’ve got my eye on here is Rafael Devers. Devers mashes righties like Wilson and is on an incredible hot streak right now. Devers has four homers in his last seven days (23 at-bats).
With a Devers homer in mind, I also like the Red Sox to win in this one. Boston is 6-4 in games where Devers homers, outscoring opposition 49-39 in those games.
