NBA Expert Picks Tonight Round One Best Bets

NBA Expert Picks Tonight: Back the Thunder in Game 1

After a rousing start to the first round of the NBA playoffs, four games tip off a scintillating Sunday slate.

Incredibly, favorites won and covered the spread in every game yesterday for just the third time in the last 20 years during the first day of NBA playoff action. Let's take a look at spread, moneyline and total plays to help you beat the books as these four teams battle it out for NBA playoff berths:

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Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers

Matchup Page: Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers, 7:30p.m. ET

TeamSpreadMoneyTotal
Dallas Mavericks-3 (-108)-152O 222.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Clippers+3 (-112)+128U 222.5 (-110)

Pick: OVER 208

The Los Angeles Clippers have an offensive rating of 113.4 without Kawhi Leonard this season. With their superstar unlikely to lace 'em up on Sunday, it's impossible to back the Clips. Ty Lue's team averaged just 112.5 points per game without Leonard.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks are 33-5 SU and 31-7 ATS on the year when they allow less than 115 points. The Mavs gave up under 112 in two of their three matchups with the Clippers and hold a 113.4 defensive rating since the All-Star break. On top of that, Los Angeles is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home.

Give me the Mavericks to win -152.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans

Matchup Page: Oklahoma City Thunder Vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30pm ET

TeamSpreadMoneyTotal
Oklahoma City Thunder-8 (-110)-320O 216 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans+8 (-110)+260U 216 (-110)

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -8

Oklahoma City's 110.9 defensive rating since the All-Star break sits just behind Miami and Denver for third in the Association. On top of that, OKC's 118.7 offensive rating sits fifth in that same span.

Led by NBA MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder also own the league's third-ranked offense at 120.1 points per game. They scored over 112 points in 61 of their 82 games this season. Crucially, when OKC scores over 110 points, they went 52-13 SU and 43-22 ATS on the year.

New Orleans will be without the services of Zion Williamson after he injured his leg in the play-in tournament. On top of that, Brandon Ingram is still working his way back from a bone bruise. The Pelicans will struggle to keep pace with the high-flying Thunder if Ingram is anything less than his normal bucket getting self.

I love SGA and the Thunder to run away with this one and stamp their claim as a true NBA Championship contender.

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