Top 25 College Basketball Betting Preview: In Wave of Upsets, Home Dogs Show Plenty of Bite

The upsets came one after another, sometimes with such frequency that it was difficult to keep up with them all.

Purdue was upset at 7.5-point underdog Nebraska, which scored its first victory over a No. 1-ranked team in 41 years. Houston went down at 2.5-point underdog Iowa State and then at 3-point underdog TCU, suffering back-to-back losses for the first time in nearly two years. Kansas lost at 7-point underdog UCF, which recorded its first victory ever over a top-five opponent. Late at night on the East Coast, Gonzaga lost at 8-point underdog Santa Clara, which ended a 26-game losing streak to the Bulldogs.

NEBRASKETBALL. #1 Purdue goes down in Lincoln!🌽 pic.twitter.com/yuOAhokJ10

— College Basketball Report (@CBKReport) January 10, 2024

Over and over, they came. Tennessee lost as a 2-point favorite at Mississippi State. Marquette lost as a 5-point favorite at Seton Hall. Clemson lost as a 2-point favorite at Virginia Tech. Arizona lost as a 9-point favorite at Washington State. Texas lost as a 6-point favorite at West Virginia. It was the bloodiest week in recent memory for teams in the AP Top 25, and to sports bettors it only emphasized the power of single-digit underdogs playing on their home court.

For teams at the top of the rankings, the heat of conference play is a different world from the early season when every notable big game was contested at home or on a neutral court. With few exceptions, elite teams don’t truly prepare themselves for the oppressive road environments they face in league play. The result can be a rude wake-up call, as we saw in December when Purdue lost a 5.5-point underdog Northwestern and Connecticut lost at 8-point underdog Seton Hall. Now with everyone in conference play, the upset potential is there almost every night.

Of course, not every home underdog is a winner—UConn last week covered at 4.5-point dog Xavier, North Carolina cruised past 3-point home underdog N.C. State, and Duke hammered 5-point home underdog Pitt. And not every upset last week was courtesy of a home dog; both Marquette and Illinois were stunned at home (by +11.5 Butler and +9 Maryland, respectively), and Kentucky lost as a slight road underdog at Texas A&M. But no question, home underdogs did most of the damage.

7th straight dub ✅ pic.twitter.com/vsCiBKcBTm

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) January 10, 2024

How do sports bettors, spot those potential upsets? If last week was any indication, you want to look for capable home underdogs that are on the fringes of the Top 25 or NCAA tournament contention (hello, Nebraska, TCU, Mississippi State and Seton Hall) or visiting ranked squads with notable weaknesses that can be exploited (hello, Houston, Texas, Clemson and Gonzaga). The right combination of those factors—well, it can lead to what we saw all around the country last week.

And with that, here are some notable sports betting winners and losers from the season’s past few weeks.

Winners

North Carolina: No upset worries here, at least for the time being. The nation’s best two-man game, comprised of center Armando Bacot and guard R.J. Davis, had propelled the Tar Heels to six straight wins and six straight covers entering the week. There aren’t many scoring options outside the big two and this is a rather thin overall roster, but Bacot and Davis remain enough to overwhelm opponents in a weak ACC. 

Duke: The Blue Devils entered the week having won eight straight games, covering the spread six times in that span. A convincing victory at Pittsburgh eased some concerns about Duke’s ability to win on the road, and the return of guard Tyrese Proctor from an ankle injury adds another scoring threat. The countdown is on for the Feb. 2 clash in Chapel Hill.

RED RAIDERS WIN!#TTW | @JFergPros pic.twitter.com/bDhbQycfe3

— Texas Tech Basketball (@TexasTechMBB) January 13, 2024

Texas Tech: We’ve been high on Grant McCasland’s team for weeks now, and with good reason. The Red Raiders entered this week having won nine in a row, and having covered the spread in four of their last five, including winning outright at Texas as a road underdog. A balanced squad with four double-digit scorers, Texas Tech faces a huge test this week at Houston.

Losers

Gonzaga: These are rough times for the Zags, who entered the week having dropped four of eight and covering the spread just twice in that span. The loss to Santa Clara—No. 112 in the NCAA’s NET rankings—looked even worse after the Broncos were pounded by St. Mary’s their next time out. As a result the Bulldogs fell out of the AP Top 25 Monday for the first time since 2016, snapping a 143-week streak of being ranked.

Oklahoma: The Sooners are 3-3 since their 10-0 start, entering the week having lost two straight overall and having covered the spread just once in their last six. Oklahoma is turning the ball over too much and failing to covert from the 3-point arc, leading to easy transition buckets for opponents. The schedule eases just a bit until back-to-back home games against Texas and Texas Tech next week.

Kansas: Now that Texas has fallen out of the AP Top 25, no ranked team has a worse cover rate than Kansas, which entering the week had beaten the spread just three times in its previous 14 games. The Jayhawks’ averaging scoring margin was just 12.2 points, 17th-best among ranked teams. For Kansas, any double-digit spread right now is dangerous ground.

Upset Alert

Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch this week as potential point-spread upsets:

Marquette at St. John’s: While the Red Storm had a four-game winning streak snapped at Creighton, St. John’s entered this week without a loss at home since November, and having covered the spread in six of eight. Madison Square Garden will certainly be jumping when Rick Pitino’s team hosts the Golden Eagles on Saturday.

Creighton at Seton Hall: The Pirates entered the week having won seven of eight overall and covered in five of seven, a run that has them on the cusp of the AP Top 25. Shaheen Holloway’s team plays tough defense and has a standout in guard Kadary Richmond, neither of which will be easy for a Creighton team coming off a game at UConn.

Alabama at Tennessee: The Vols pulled off the comeback of the year last week when they rallied from 10 down to win at Georgia, thanks to 36 points from guard Dalton Knecht. But don’t overlook Alabama, which played an absolutely brutal non-conference schedule, entered the week having won five straight and covered four times over that span, and has a star in guard Mark Sears, averaging 20.3 points per game. 

Player Prop Watch

Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:

Top 25 Pick 3

Wisconsin to cover against Indiana: The Badgers are rolling, entering the week having won 12 out of 13 outright and covered in five straight. Transfer guard A.J. Storr from St. John’s had added offensive punch to a lineup that was already solid defensively. The Hoosiers have been competitive, but not quite able to contend with elite teams, especially away from home.

Arizona to cover against UCLA: For all its issues on the road, Arizona still entered the week having covered in all but four games this season, and the Wildcats are a different team in the friendly confines of the McKale Center. The Bruins, meanwhile, are awful, entering the week having dropped eight of 10 overall and nine of 11 against the spread. The last time UCLA went on the road, the Bruins lost by 46 at Utah.

Auburn to cover against Ole Miss: Despite their fantastic overall record, the Rebels haven’t yet proven they can hang with good teams on the road. And Auburn is indeed a good team, with a deep 10-man rotation that’s winning by an average of 18.4 points per game. The Tigers entered the week having won nine straight overall and four of five against the spread.