In a down year for the ACC, it was what passed for a notable matchup: a Wake Forest team that had won 10 of its past 12 games visiting the Dean Dome as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday night. The final result, though, has become a predictable one—North Carolina cruising to a big victory, and easily covering the spread.
The Tar Heels are the hottest team in college basketball, as of Monday having won nine consecutive games to vault to No. 3 in the AP Top 25. But they’ve also been a very consistent play for sports bettors, having covered the spread eight times in that nine-game stretch. In a topsy-turvy sport defined by upsets, North Carolina is a rock of stability, at least for the time being.
UNC has been an underdog just once over the course of its nine-game winning streak, covering at Clemson in early January. The Tar Heels are unlikely to be an underdog again anytime soon, perhaps until they visit Duke for the final game of the regular season on March 9. North Carolina is winning by an average of 14.5 points per game, a margin that’s ballooned to 19.4 points over the course of its current winning streak.
"RJ Davis is the best player in our league. He proved it tonight."
— Carolina Basketball Stats & Info (@UNCMBBStats) January 23, 2024
-Wake Forest head coach Steve Forbes
Postgame quotes: https://t.co/mA7u3pjEJP
A lot of that is due to the fact that guard RJ Davis (21 points per game) and center Armando Bacot (14.1 points and 10.3 rebounds per contest) are playing at an elite level, together comprising the best two-man game in America. But it’s also because the ACC is exceedingly weak, with just three teams (No. 7 UNC, No. 19 Duke and No. 33 Clemson) in the top 40 of the NCAA’s NET rankings as of Monday. A road game Saturday at Florida State might seem like a serious test for UNC—until you realize their current streak includes four ACC road wins.
While anything can happen in college basketball, it’s hard to see the Tar Heels’ current trajectory changing anytime soon, meaning they’ll continue to be a strong betting play against ACC competition. Although March might be different—UNC did lose to the two best teams it’s played this season, Connecticut and Kentucky—North Carolina will offer lots of good wagering opportunities between now and then. And with that, here are some notable sports betting winners and losers from the season’s past few weeks.
Winners
The Cyclones broke into the rankings on the heels of an upset of then-unbeaten Houston, which through Monday was one of nine victories in their past 11 games. Iowa State has covered the spread eight times over that span, winning outright twice as an underdog—at home over the Cougars, and then as a 5-point dog last weekend at TCU. A massive home game against mighty Kansas awaits on Sunday.
The Fighting Illini have weathered the storm—for the time being, at least. Thanks to a court injunction, Terrence Shannon Jr. is back on the court for a team that through Monday had won seven of its last nine outright, most of those with its star guard on the bench. Shannon scored 16 in a blowout of 11-point underdog Rutgers on Sunday, Illinois’ sixth cover in its last eight games, and perhaps a sign of more to come.
Bruce Pearl’s Tigers entered the week having won 11 straight, covering the spread nine times over that span. A deep team with 10 guys who play serious minutes, Auburn had covered each of its last three as a double-digit favorites. The schedule to this point has been heavy with home games, and Auburn plays three of its next four on the road—beginning with a matchup at dangerous rival Alabama this week.
Losers
A 10-game outright winning streak came to a crashing halt last week when Memphis blew a 20-point lead at home to 10-point underdog South Florida. Things got worse three days later, when the Tigers lost as 3.5-point favorites at Tulane. A streaky betting play at best, Memphis seems radioactive right now after failing to cover in eight of 10 games entering the week.
"RJ Davis is the best player in our league. He proved it tonight."
— Carolina Basketball Stats & Info (@UNCMBBStats) January 23, 2024
-Wake Forest head coach Steve Forbes
Postgame quotes: https://t.co/mA7u3pjEJP
While all road games in the Big 12 are tough, outright losses to 7-point dog UCF (No. 67 in the NET) and 10-point dog West Virginia (No. 155) aren’t what we expect from the Jayhawks. But then again, maybe they are, given that this team fails again and again to deliver a knockout punch. Kansas entering the week had beaten the spread in just three of its last 11 games; among ranked teams, only Memphis had a worse cover rate.
One of the steadiest teams in America over the first half of the season, Baylor has hit its first speed bump. The Bears entered the week on the heels of back-to-back losses, both on the road, to 1-point underdog Kansas State and 2.5-point favorite Texas, the latter on a defensive breakdown that allowed the Longhorns to sink a last-second shot. Baylor entered the week having failed to cover two of its last three, and with a very rough schedule (TCU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma) ahead of it.
Upset Alert
Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch this week as potential point-spread upsets:
Auburn at Alabama:
While the Crimson Tide had a six-game winning streak snapped last week in a blowout loss at Tennessee, this remains a very dangerous Alabama team—especially at home—with a fantastic scoring guard in Mark Sears. Bama has covered in five of seven; add in the rivalry element, and this looks like Auburn’s toughest SEC game outside of Kentucky.
Colorado State at Nevada:
A Nevada team that started 15-1 entered this week on a three-game losing streak, with two of those defeats coming away from home. Colorado State despite its 15-3 overall mark had failed to cover in four straight entering the week, and the Rams have won outright in Reno just once since 2015.
Kansas at Iowa State:
A huge opportunity for the Cyclones to take a step up in the Big 12 against a Jayhawks team they’ve beaten just once in the series’ last nine meetings. Entering this week, Iowa State was 10-1 against the spread at home, including 1-0 as an underdog (the win over Houston). Kansas meanwhile entered the week at 1-3 against the spread away from Lawrence.
Player Prop Watch
Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:
- Zack Edey, Purdue center: Entered the week with averages of 23.3 points and 11.5 rebounds per game, having scored 30 or more in three straight contests, with double-doubles in five of his last six outings.
- Hunter Dickinson, Kansas center: Entered the week with averages of 18.8 points and 11.1rebounds per game, having scored 19 or more points in four straight contests.
- Armando Bacot, North Carolina center: Through Monday had averages of 14.1 points and10.3 rebounds per game.
- R.J. Davis, North Carolina guard: Through Monday had a scoring average of 21 points, having scored 20 or more in three of his past four outings, including 36 on Monday night.
- Kyle Filipowski, Duke center: Entered the week with averages of 18.2 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, with double-doubles in two of his past three outings.
- Dalton Knecht, Tennessee guard: Entered the week with an average of 18.8 points per game, having scored 28, 36, 39 and 25 over his past four outings.
- Antonio Reeves, Kentucky guard: Entered the week with averages of 19.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, having scored 20 or more points in three straight outings.
- Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois guard: Scored 16 points last weekend in his first appearance since Dec. 22, and entered the week averaging 21.3 points per game.
Top 25 Pick 3
New Mexico to cover against San Jose State:
The Lobos, who cracked the AP Top 25 this week, have low-key been one the most consistent betting plays in America, entering the week having won 15 of 17 outright and covering in 12 of their last 15. Their plus-5.1-point ATS margin is second-best among ranked teams after BYU. New Mexico is also 8-1 against the spread in The Pit, where this week it welcomes a Spartans team that’s lost eight of its last 11.
Iowa State to cover against Kansas:
We’re written a lot about how the Jayhawks’ poor results against the spread don’t mesh with their lofty poll position, a disparity that’s likely to grow more acute the deeper we get into the grinder that is the Big 12. The Cyclones are excellent against the spread at home, Kansas is terrible against the spread on the road, and KU’s negative-3.5-point overall ATS margin doesn’t inspire confidence.
Illinois to cover against Indiana:
The Illini showed all kinds of depth and moxie in weathering the Shannon suspension, and how have all their weapons reassembled to face an Indiana team that entered the week having lost four of six both outright and against the spread. Shannon figures to be a regular in the Illinois lineup until at least the preliminary hearing in his sexual assault case, which is scheduled for Feb. 23.
