Notre Dame (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) has won its last 21 games in South Bend by an average of nearly 24 points. That’s bad news for Louisville (1-3 ,1-2-1), which comes into town on a three-game losing streak and has covered just two of its last 10 road contests. The Irish beat Louisville 35-17 last year in Kentucky.
- Date/Time: October 17, 2:30 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Notre Dame Stadium
- TV Coverage: NBC
- Sportsbook Odds: Notre Dame -14 | O/U 63.5 (Line History)
- Louisville vs Notre Dame Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
Unless we see drastic line movement toward the Irish, this will mark the first time in Notre Dame’s last five home games that it wasn’t favored by at least 20 points. Nine of the Irish’s last 11 wins in South Bend have come by 14 points or more.
Louisville News & Notes
The Cardinals come into South Bend on a three-game losing streak, and turnovers are a big reason why. Louisville lost three fumbles in last week’s rainy conditions at Georgia Tech, also letting an early 21-7 lead slip away in a 46-27 loss to the Yellow Jackets.
The previous week, quarterback Malik Cunningham threw three interceptions in a 23-20 loss at Pittsburgh, an out-of-character performance for the young signal-caller, who otherwise has never thrown more than one interception in a contest.
Louisville has now gone OVER the total in eight of its last nine games, during which an average of 66.7 points have been scored. The Cardinals have also lost eight of their last 10 on the road (2-7-1 ATS) and things won’t get any easier defensively as they play their third straight road game. Standout cornerback Marlon Character will miss the first half of Saturday’s contest after being ejected for targeting in the second half last week at Georgia Tech.
Notre Dame News & Notes
The Irish survived a sluggish start last week to extend their home winning streak to 21 games with a 42-26 win over Florida State. Notre Dame was playing its first game in three weeks due to a COVID-19 outbreak that also forced the Irish to miss nine days of practice, and it showed early as the Irish trailed FSU 17-14 after the first quarter.
After that, however, Notre Dame buckled down to outscore the Seminoles 28-9 the rest of the way, led by a two-touchdown, 185-yard rushing performance by redshirt freshman Kyren Williams.
Notre Dame hopes to have most of its secondary back this week after missing several starters due to COVID-19 concerns against FSU. The Irish converted veteran safety Shaun Crawford to cornerback and the five-foot-nine senior was burned for a 48-yard TD pass in the Sportsbook quarter, although he bounced back to make a key interception later in the game on third-and-goal.
Notre Dame’s run defense may have also been impacted by the lack of practice, allowing FSU backs to average 4.5 yards per carry.
Betting Pick: Notre Dame -15.5
I liked this bet a lot more at the -14 opener, but this line still looks short considering Notre Dame’s home dominance and Louisville’s road struggles. Look for the Irish defense to be a lot sharper from the Sportsbook kickoff after last week’s slow start.
- Notre Dame has won 21 straight games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Louisville’s last 9 games.
- Louisville is 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.
