With a berth in the SEC championship game already locked up, Florida (8-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) closes out the regular season against LSU (3-5, 4-4). The Tigers have won five of the last seven meetings but this is the first time Florida has been favored in the rivalry since 2010.
- Date/Time: December 12, 7 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: Florida -23 | O/U 69.5 (Line History)
- LSU vs Florida Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
According to our database, Florida hasn’t been favored by more than 14 points over LSU since 2000. The Gators were 13.5-point underdogs when these teams met last year in Baton Rouge, the ninth straight time they caught points in this rivalry.
LSU News & Notes
The Tigers are licking their wounds after one of the worst defensive performances in their program’s history. LSU allowed 650 total yards and 55 points last week to Alabama, and those numbers would have looked a lot worse if the Crimson Tide hadn’t taken their foot off the gas in the second half.
Alabama scored on each of its first seven possessions and had 45 points by halftime, the most points LSU has ever allowed in a half at home. Big plays hurt LSU badly as two of Alabama’s touchdowns came on plays of 60 yards or more and two more came on 20-yarders.
Whether LSU can get back up off the mat after such a beatdown will go a long way toward determining if the Tigers can keep this contest competitive. LSU has not lost consecutive games this season and is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games following a defeat, including a 27-24 victory at Arkansas following a 48-11 blowout loss at Auburn earlier this year. LSU is also 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 on the road and has covered four of its last five road games as underdogs.
Florida News & Notes
The Gators have already clinched a spot in the SEC championship game, where a win will almost certainly vault them into the national College Football Playoff, but they still have something to play for in their regular-season finale. Quarterback Kyle Trask is neck and neck with Alabama QB Mac Jones on the latest Heisman Trophy odds and needs to put up big numbers in this one.
It looks like Florida’s offense is set up to give Trask the opportunity. The Gators relied almost solely on the pass last week at Tennessee, when Trask threw for 433 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Gators to a 31-19 victory. Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney each went over 100 receiving yards for Florida, which ran the ball just 16 times for 21 yards in the contest.
Defensively, Florida may be finally hitting its stride after struggling earlier this season. The Gators had five sacks against the Volunteers and have held each of their last three opponents under 20 points. Meanwhile, each of Florida’s last three games have gone UNDER the total by a dozen points or more.
Betting Pick: UNDER 68
Florida’s defense has played much better over the past month, and LSU is averaging 15.5 points per game in its last four. Meanwhile, expect the Tigers defense to play with a lot of pride after being humiliated at home last week.
- LSU is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road.
- Florida is 11-0 SU in its last 11 home games (avg margin: 20.8).
- LSU is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games vs Florida.
