One week after successfully covering a near five-touchdown spread against visiting Duke, the Alabama Crimson Tide have a new challenge: a date with a New Mexico State Aggies team that will be getting more than 50 points in one of the biggest mismatches on the Week 2 college football calendar.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Alabama Crimson Tide (Matchup Report)
Date/Time: September 7, 4 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: SEC Network
Sportsbook Odds: Alabama -55.5 | O/U 63.5 (Line History)
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The line opened Alabama -55.5 (!!!), though you’ll get anywhere from -54 to -55 as of Tuesday depending on where you shop. The total opened at 63.5 and was available at either 63.5 or 64 as of Tuesday morning.
New Mexico State News & Notes
The Aggies have certainly seen their share of lopsided odds, having been underdogs of 40-plus points six times already this decade; they’re 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in those contests, with their only “victory” coming in 2016 when they fell 52-10 to Texas A&M as a 43.5-point underdog. New Mexico State has already tasted lopsided defeat, going into this weekend’s showdown on the heels of a 58-7 drubbing at the hands of Washington State.
And it gets worse: The Aggies are 0-16 SU all-time against the SEC, while going just 6-10 ATS despite being an underdog of 20 or more points 13 times in that span. New Mexico State had no answer for WSU, allowing the hosts to rack up 636 yards while turning the ball over three times and fumbling (but recovering) two other times. The only offensive bright spot: QB Josh Adkins, who went 28-for-42 for 221 yards while adding a rushing touchdown.
Alabama News & Notes
The Crimson Tide know all about 50-point spreads; they were -53.5 for last year’s Week 12 game against The Citadel. You probably remember that one: the teams stunningly went into halftime tied 10-10 before Alabama remembered who it was and cruised to a second-half blowout. That sort of thing has become a pattern in Tuscaloosa, with the No. 2-ranked Tide having gone just 4-13 ATS as a favorite of 40-plus points since 2009.
Will this week be any different? That will depend greatly on just how prolific the Crimson Tide are in the first half – because if they build a sizable 30-minute advantage, they’ll likely use the second half to give their second- and third-string players some time on the field. Case in point: Alabama ranked just 37th in second-half points per game last season (14.9) and an even less impressive 68th in fourth-quarter scoring (6.6 ppg).
Betting Pick
While we have no idea when Nick Saban will pull QB Tua Tagovailoa and the rest of his starters, we do know that it’s happening – and a big first half against a road-weary and still-shellshocked Aggies team will be the catalyst. We like Alabama against the first-half spread.
- New Mexico State is 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Alabama’s last 8 games in September.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Mexico State’s last 10 games vs the SEC.
