The Texas A&M Aggies open as 3-point underdogs in Week 9 vs the Mississippi State Bulldogs in what’s anticipated to be a close, low-scoring game. Jimbo Fisher’s squad is 6-1 ATS this season, including covering the spread vs Alabama and Clemson in their only other two games as underdogs this year. Meanwhile, MSU is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four outings.
- The total has gone UNDER in Mississippi State’s last four games (avg. combined score: 27.0).
- Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs its conference.
- Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs Mississippi State.
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State Game Center
Bulldogs Getting the Benefit of the Doubt by Oddsmakers
Mississippi State is getting the benefit of the doubt with home-field advantage by oddsmakers in this Week 9 SEC game. MSU is 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season with wins over Stephen F. Austin and Louisiana-Lafayette, ho-hum, but it’s the October 6 game vs Auburn that gets them the favorite role in Saturday’s game.
MSU opened the Auburn game as 3-point dogs but dominated the Tigers on home turf. That was three weeks ago and their last home game after a bye week and then the loss at LSU.
Defense is the Hallmark of Both Teams
Mississippi State has the No. 3 scoring defense at 13.6 points per game while Texas A&M is a touchdown worse at 20.3 points per game against. The Aggies’ number is a little inflated as they saw Alabama put up a 45-spot on them plus 28 more from No. 2 Clemson a few weeks back.
In addition to the points per game, these defenses are both among the best in the nation in yards against. Mississippi State has kept teams to 282 yards per game while Texas A&M sits at 320 yards per game after Week 8.
My Pick for This Game
I’m taking the Aggies as the road underdog in this one and will also be betting UNDER 45 points. Both teams have been among the top defensive teams in the nation while the Aggies have had a better offense.
Texas A&M is averaging 32.3 points per game, good for 47th in the FBS, while accumulating 487 yards per game. The Aggies pushed Clemson to the brink and managed to keep Alabama to a 22-point win, the national champs’ closest game so far.
Mississippi State is in the middle to the bottom of the pack when it comes to offensive production with 406 yards per game (69th) and 27 points per game (82nd). While the home-field advantage will certainly be real, I don’t think it’s enough to push them past the 16th-ranked team in the latest AP poll.
