The on-again, off-again Antonio Brown-Oakland Raiders relationship is off for good. The Broncos are now 3-point road favorites.
Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders (Matchup Report)
Date/Time: September 9, 10:20 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: ESPN National Game
Sportsbook Odds: Raiders -3 | O/U 43 (Line History)
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Raiders opened as 3-point favorites, but after news broke last Thursday that Oakland was planning to suspend Antonio Brown, the Broncos jumped out to 2.5-point road favorites only to have Jon Gruden announce Friday that Brown was back and would play, before they finally released him Saturday. The Broncos are now 3-point road favorites. Got all that?
The Raiders moneyline is +125 and the point total opened at 43 but is now 42.5. Denver was 2-2 ATS and hit three consecutive UNDERS as a road favorite last season, while Oakland was 3-3 ATS as a home underdog last season and 3-7 SU in its last 10 games.
Denver News & Notes
In his nine seasons as general manager, John Elway has burned through five quarterbacks and four coaches. So, with that much turnover, it’s difficult to glean much from recent SU and ATS betting trends as the core components of the Broncos franchise have varied from year to year.
With that said, the Broncos pass rush, led by Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, finished with 44 sacks last season, which ranked eighth in the NFL. They’ll likely eat well again in Week 1 against a Raiders offensive line that allowed 52 sacks last season and one that Pro Football Focus ranks as the seventh-worst O-line heading into 2019. Best of luck, Derek Carr.
On offense, Joe Flacco takes over behind center as top receiver Emmanuel Sanders has looked sharp in preseason action, nine months removed from tearing his Achilles tendon. In two games against the Raiders last season, Phillip Lindsay rushed 24 times for 153 yards or 6.4 yards per rush.
Oakland News & Notes
Despite being sacked 52 times last season, Derek Carr was taken to the turf only two times in two games against the Broncos last season. Yet, the personnel around him is quite different now. Alabama rookie Josh Jacobs pushed Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin out of the picture this season. Jacobs is an AP ROY favorite as a three-down back.
Defensively, the Raiders tried to address their league-low 13 sacks of a season ago by drafting defensive end Clelin Ferrell with their first-round pick. Still, a veteran like Flacco will have a field day carving up the Raiders secondary, while Lindsay and Royce Freeman appear to have the advantage against a below-average run defense that ranked 30th last year and may not have upgraded enough in the offseason.
The Raiders were 2-0 ATS against the Broncos last season, covering +6 at Denver and +2.5 at home.
Betting Pick: Broncos -1
The Broncos boast a veteran presence behind center, a veteran wide receiver and a defense led by Miller that’s better than the 2018 stats indicate. As Jon Gruden enters his second season as the Raiders head coach, what does he have? Derek Carr is still developing, Josh Jacobs is a rookie, Antonio Brown is gone and the defense allowed the most points in franchise history last season. I’m sticking with my original pick, the Broncos -1. I also like the UNDER 43.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos’ last nine games (avg. combined score: 38.78).
- The Raiders are 1-7 SU in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
- The visiting team is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.
