The Cowboys defense held Matt Ryan under 300 passing yards for the first time in five games and the Falcons’ lackluster offense only made one trip to the red zone in their 22-19 home loss to Dallas. Atlanta has now failed to cover in three of its past four games, while the UNDER has hit in that same three of four. The Falcons are 4-6 overall and 3-7 against the spread this season.
New Orleans averaged nearly 8.0 yards per play and converted four of five trips to the red zone in its 48-7 shellacking of the Eagles. The Saints have now covered eight consecutive games and are 9-1 overall and 8-2 against the spread.
New Orleans opened as the 10-point home favorite, but that wasn’t enough for some as Saints backers hammered the number, pushing it up to -13 before Sunday Night Football ended. If you’re feeling frisky, the Falcons moneyline is +465 in a divisional matchup. The total opened at 60.5 before a slight dip to 59.
It required overtime, but the Saints covered as 1.5-point underdogs at Atlanta back in Week 3, winning 43-37. This is only the eighth time New Orleans has been a home favorite of 13 or more points since 1988 and it is 5-2 straight up and 3-4 against the spread in the previous seven matchups. The Saints failed to cover 16.5 last season in a 31-19 win over the New York Jets.
- The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs the Saints.
- The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as favorite.
- The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 11
Falcons – We learned Week 9’s 38-14 win over the Redskins on the road was an anomaly in what has been an underachieving season for the perennial playoff contender. In the two games since, Atlanta’s inability to stop opposing running backs in the rushing and passing games continues to be the team’s tragic flaw. Two weeks ago, Cleveland rushed for 211 yards, paced by rookie Nick Chubb’s 176 rush and 33 receiving yards with two touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliott followed that up with 122 rushing yards with a score and led the Cowboys in receiving, hauling in seven of eight targets for 79 yards.
Atlanta now has to stop Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, who wasn’t active the first time these two teams met back in Week 3. Kamara caught 15 passes for 124 yards and rushed for another 66 in that contest.
Saints – New Orleans’ defense yielded just 4.1 yards per play to a Philadelphia offense averaging nearly 6.0 per over the past three games.
The Saints front office bent over backwards trying to find a free-agent receiver over the past two weeks, but perhaps he was on their roster all along. Granted, the Eagles secondary is really banged up, but Tre-Quan Smith’s 10 receptions for 157 yards and a touchdown shouldn’t be ignored with Atlanta’s 29th-ranked pass defense up next.
Note: New Orleans was flagged 11 times for 120 yards in its overtime win at Atlanta in Week 3.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: SHORT-WEEK SOIREE
Dating back to 1992, the Saints are 5-4 straight up and 2-5-2 against the spread when playing on three days’ rest after a game the previous week. Over the same time period, the Falcons are 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS on the short week.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: GONE STREAKING
The Saints go for nine straight covers this Thursday. Since 2008, teams that have covered eight straight games in the same season are 6-6 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in the ninth game.
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA FORECAST
Inside.
New Orleans kicker Wil Lutz hasn’t missed a field goal since Week 2 and is 19-for-20 on the season. He’s 33-for-34 on extra points. After missing three straight games due to a hamstring injury, veteran Atlanta boot Matt Bryant improved his 2018 resume to 9-for-9 on field goals and 16-for-17 on extra points.
MY LEAN
Since New Orleans allowed 37 points to Atlanta in their Week 3 matchup, the Saints defense has held their last seven opponents to 19.4 points per game. Over their past three games, the Saints are averaging 48 points per contest with no signs of slowing down. This ascension comes after national pundits believed the Bengals were a “trap” game and then they not only carved up the defending Super Bowl champions for 548 yards and 48 points but held the Eagles to one touchdown over 60 minutes. Where is the Saints’ weakness in a league of parity?
I lay the points.
Bonus Tidbit: Teams favored by 13 or more points on Thanksgiving are 5-0 SU and ATS since 1984.
