Red-Hot Ravens Roll into Los Angeles as Road Favorites over Rams

Lamar Jackson tossed four touchdowns, the Ravens rushed for 263 yards and Baltimore’s pass rush harassed Deshaun Watson for 60 minutes in a 41-7 rout of the Texans last week. The Ravens improved to 8-2 straight up and 5-4-1 against the spread this season.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Rams’ 17-7 win over the Bears on Sunday night was effective. Los Angeles improved to 6-4 straight up and 7-3 against the spread this season.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Ravens opened as 3-point road favorites, but after the Rams’ less than stellar effort against the Bears on Sunday night, Baltimore is now -3.5 at L.A. The Los Angeles moneyline opened at -111, but jumped to a ML range between +150 and +160 depending on the book. The total opened at 49 before a significant dip to 46. The total has gone UNDER in the Rams’ last five games with an average combined score of 32.2.

Since the start of 2018, Baltimore is 2-3 straight up and 1-3-1 against the spread when a road favorite of 3.5 or fewer points. However, the Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games. 

Los Angeles has been a home dog of 3.5 or fewer points only three times during the Jared Goff era. The Rams are 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in those contests. They are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games when hosting an East Coast team.

Baltimore News & Notes

At this rate, Lamar Jackson will have a statue erected outside M&T Bank Stadium in his likeness before the start of the 2020 regular season. The second-year quarterback is rewriting the quarterback position and leads the league’s highest-scoring offense. Baltimore is averaging 34.1 points per game this season, 34.3 during their six-game winning streak and 42.3 over their past three.

The TL;DR version: the Ravens offense is on fire.

However, it’s also overshadowing improvements made on the defensive side of the ball that has assisted in the six-game streak. Baltimore has allowed just 16 points per game during its active winning streak, but check out the most recent three-game defensive splits:

With the exception of the rush defense, Baltimore’s defense – whose members as a whole are no longer spring chickens – is trending upward. When you combine their efforts with Jackson’s dynamic run-pass abilities, this squad is scary.

One other thing that’s worth noting is, with their quarterback’s limitations as a passer, how the coaching staff has worked a scheme to get the ball to the tight end on shorter routes. Two of the team’s top three leading receivers – and three of the top five – are tight ends.

Los Angeles News & Notes

The Rams lost time of possession and the turnover battle and converted only three of 10 third downs in their 17-7 win over the Bears.

Los Angeles was without Brandin Cooks (concussion) and Robert Woods (personal) against the Bears. This isn’t an excuse for the 17 points scored, but an opportunity to highlight all that is good about Todd Gurley. As what coach Sean McVay referred to as the “focal point,” the Rams’ franchise running back touched the ball 28 times for 133 yards and a touchdown. While his 3.9 yards per rush was underwhelming, it was a good sign to see that Gurley can still handle that type of workload.

Since allowing 55 points to the Buccaneers in Week 4 and 30 to the Seahawks a few days later, the Rams scoring defense has improved. Over the past five games, Los Angeles has allowed 12.8 points per game. Yes, that metric comes with a strength of schedule asterisk as they faced the Falcons, Bengals, Steelers and Bears during that stretch, but the point stands.

Coach McVay expects Cooks and Woods back against the Ravens, but that’s still pending.

Betting Pick: Ravens -3.5

After watching the Rams the past few weeks, one thing is for sure, their offense isn’t the greatest show on ... any playing surface. Perhaps, an active Woods and Cooks changes that, but I’m not sure any defensive coordinator slows down Jackson and the Ravens offense at this point.