Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -5, O/U 51)
The 1-2 Atlanta Falcons play host to Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday, with Atlanta currently listed as a 5-point favorite. Linebacker gives the edge to Matt Ryan and the Falcons in this one, as Atlanta is projected to win the game 79.9 percent of the time. With a final projected score of 29.9-20.8, we side with Atlanta against the spread as well, recommending a wager of $114 for an average $100 bettor.
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Why will Atlanta cover the spread?
- Matt Ryan should carve up the Bengals secondary. Cincinnati has allowed 270.3 passing yards per game (ninth-most) this season, while Ryan has amassed 646 passing yards and nine total TDs (7 pass, 2 rush) with a 78 percent completion rate over the last two weeks.
- The Bengals rush defense isn’t much better, surrendering 123.4 rushing yards per game (seventh-most) through three weeks. Tevin Coleman should take advantage, as we project him to finish with 107.3 total yards (75.8 rush, 31.5 rec). Coleman has a great chance to reach pay dirt on the ground, averaging 0.8 rushing touchdowns in our simulations.
- Atlanta has played near mistake-free football, turning the ball over just twice in three weeks. Cincinnati’s defense forced five turnovers in its two victories, but failed to cause any in Week 3 against the Panthers, ultimately losing the game 31-21. Continuing to avoid turnovers will be key for the Falcons if they want to cover.
How to bet the total in Bengals @ Falcons:
- With a projected score of 29.9-20.8 (50.7 total points), Linebacker forecasts the total to fall right in line with the current OVER/UNDER of 51. Coming in slightly on the UNDER, we recommend a $3 wager for a $100 average bettor.
Need to know stats for Bengals @ Falcons:
- 278.7 passing yards, 1.9 TDs – Matt Ryan approaches a 300-yard game while projecting to toss his third multi-touchdown game in a row.
- 4.4 receptions, 49.2 yards – Calvin Ridley exploded onto the scene last week with 7 catches, 146 yards and 3 TDs. We anticipate a much more down-to-earth performance for the rookie, projecting him to catch four or five passes and be held well short of the 100-yard mark.
- 6.6 receptions, 81.8 yards – Julio Jones is projected to retake the WR1 role from Ridley in Week 4. He posted 5-96-0 in Week 3 and is eighth in the NFL with 34 targets. His role should remain strong in ATL this weekend.
- 238.1 passing yards – Andy Dalton is projected to post his lowest yardage total of the season. Cam Newton and Drew Brees have posted back-to-back games of 330-plus yards against this secondary, but Dalton isn’t on their talent level and should be held in check.
- 18.7 touches, 87.8 total yards – Joe Mixon is questionable to play this week on his way back from knee surgery, but if he’s active we anticipate a normal workload for the second-year back. If he is inactive, Giovani Bernard should absorb Mixon’s 19 touches and have a big impact in the passing game. Atlanta allowed 29 receptions and 226 receiving yards to Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in the last two weeks.
