The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals have played eight times since 1996 and the Bills are a perfect 8-0 and a near-perfect 7-1 ATS against the Bengals.
So when the line opened at just -3 for the surprising 3-0 Bills, many bettors jumped on the line. But is this a letdown spot for Buffalo, a week after a huge home win over the division-rival Patriots and looking ahead to a Week 5 date with Philadelphia?
Of note, the Bills are currently the league's top-rated offense at 37.1 PPG and they averaged more than 33 PPG in those eight games vs Cincinnati.
View Buffalo vs Cincinnati Odds and Stats.
Betting Line:
On the Sportsbook line for this matchup the Bengals sit as 3-point underdogs . The total, meanwhile, has been pegged by the oddsmakers at 44. The best OVER line was at Sportsbook this week while the best underdog line on Cincy was +3, +105 at Sportsbook.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Bengals sit at No. 13 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Bills are at No. 3 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Bills will win this game 38-26.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Cincinnati's No. 24-ranked offense (19 PPG) against a Bills defense that ranks No. 21 at 24.3 PPG. The Bengals passing attack has averaged 204.7 yards per game, less than the Bills give up through the air (271.7 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Bills feature the league's No. 18-rated road run defense, allowing 108 yards per game. Cincinnati, meanwhile, ranks No. 28 in rushing offense at home.
Last time out for Buffalo, they were a 34-31 Sportsbook as they battled the Patriots at home. The Bills covered in the match as a 7-point underdog, while 65 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. In Buffalo's last outing, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 369 yards to lead the Bills over New England 34-31 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Cincinnati lost its last outing, a 13-8 result against the 49ers on September 25. The Bengals failed to cover in that game as a 1-point favorite, while the 21 combined points took the game UNDER the total. The Bengals suffered a Week 3 loss against San Francisco in their last game, falling 13-8 at Paul Brown Stadium.
Buffalo Bills Trends:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Cincinnati Bengals Trends:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on turf are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 1-9
A few Bills at Bengals trends to consider:
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Next up:
Buffalo home to Philadelphia, Sunday, October 9
Cincinnati at Jacksonville, Sunday, October 9
