One of the most exciting teams to watch in the NFL due to high-scoring games is not the Baltimore Ravens, nor the San Francisco 49ers or New Orleans Saints. In 2019, it’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and with points raining down like a monsoon, the Bucs are riding a nine-game OVER streak, which is the longest consecutive OVER streak in the NFL since 2013.
That last team in 2013 was the historic Denver Broncos, who also had nine straight games go OVER the total. They had QB Peyton Manning in his last great MVP season when he threw for 55 touchdowns and 5,477 passing yards and the Broncos averaged 37.9 points per game.
Denver’s games had an average combined score of 70.1 and also had an average closing total by sportsbooks of 53.8, which is a glaring difference (more on that below).
Why Do Buccaneers Games Keep Going OVER?
There are plenty of reasons why games involving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to go OVER but it really comes down to three variables: an explosive offense, a shaky defense and a quarterback who turns over the ball often.
The Bucs check all of those boxes as they rank third in points scored per game (28.4) and 31st in points allowed per game (30.5) and QB Jameis Winston leads the NFL with 20 interceptions while throwing a pick in every game this season. This is a perfect storm and the equivalent of that Pinterest recipe that actually works out and looks like the photo in the post.
Bettors Should Keep Taking the OVER in Bucs Games
Betting on OVERs in an NFL game might be one of the safer bets for a novice bettor to make. Averaging out the 32 NFL teams’ scoring in 2019, the average point output is 22.4 so if you double that (44.8), that in theory is what the average combined score is for any NFL game this season. For reference, the average closing total by sportsbooks for every game played through 12 weeks is 45.4.
Then when you isolate these scoring numbers to just the Bucs in 2019, their games have had an average combined score of 62.8 but the average closing total for those was 48.9, which is a difference of 13.9 points. That means oddsmakers are severely missing the mark when trying to peg scoring outcomes for this Tampa Bay football team.
In order to put this into context, look at the table below for the longest OVER streaks in an NFL season since 1994, according to Odds Shark’s database. To see what most of these teams have in common, pay close attention to the difference between the average combined scores and average closing totals:
Longest OVER Streaks in NFL Regular Season
| Rank | Year | Team | OVER | Avg. Combined Score | Avg. Closing Total | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2010 | Cowboys | 12-0 | 58.0 | 45.9 | +12.1 |
| 2 | 2007 | Jaguars | 10-0 | 52.1 | 38.6 | +13.5 |
| 2 | 2007 | Browns | 10-0 | 58.2 | 43.4 | +14.8 |
| 4 | 2019 | Buccaneers | 9-0 | 62.8 | 48.9 | +13.9 |
| 4 | 2012 | Patriots | 9-0 | 62.9 | 48.8 | +14.1 |
| 4 | 2002 | Saints | 9-0 | 58.1 | 43.9 | +14.2 |
| 4 | 2000 | Buccaneers | 9-0 | 42.7 | 37.6 | +5.1 |
| 4 | 1996 | Jets | 9-0 | 50.4 | 39.2 | +11.2 |
| 9 | 2013 | Broncos | 8-0 | 70.1 | 53.8 | +16.3 |
| 9 | 2010 | Seahawks | 8-0 | 54.0 | 43.3 | +10.7 |
| 9 | 2010 | Patriots | 8-0 | 54.5 | 45.0 | +9.5 |
| 9 | 2001 | Colts | 8-0 | 57.9 | 48.1 | +9.8 |
| 9 | 2000 | Broncos | 8-0 | 58.8 | 45.3 | +13.5 |
| 9 | 1997 | Broncos | 8-0 | 50.8 | 43.8 | +7.0 |
The first thing that stands out is, man, oddsmakers were so wrong about the 2013 Broncos. Denver also shares a nine-game OVER streak with the Bucs but the Broncos hold the record for the largest difference between an average combined final score and average closing total at +16.3.
How Bettors Should Wager Going Forward
In the short team, bettors should pay attention to the Buccaneers’ upcoming games and for Week 13, they face the Jaguars with the total at 48.5. After the Jags, they face the Colts, Lions, Texans and Falcons to close out the season.
If any of these totals are below 50, you have to hammer the OVER as only one Bucs game has finished with fewer than 50 combined points and that was in Week 2 vs the Panthers. At this rate, the Buccaneers could seriously challenge the Cowboys for longest OVER streak in a regular season. To quote Scorpion from Mortal Kombat, “GET OVER HERE!!”
Bettors can also wager on if the rest of the Buccaneers games in the 2019 season will go OVER or UNDER 49.5 points:
| Option | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +1000 |
| No | -5000 |
Odds as of November 26 at Sportsbook
