The Buffalo Bills snapped the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports a year ago, but the club is being projected by many to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in the 2018 season. The Bills and sophomore quarterback Nathan Peterman will look to prove the doubters wrong when they hit the road to open the campaign against the Baltimore Ravens. Sportsbooks opened the Ravens as 7-point home favorites with a total of 40.5.
- The Bills are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road against the Ravens (avg. losing margin: 8.75).
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills’ last seven games against the Ravens (avg. combined score: 34.57).
- The Bills are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road.
The Peterman Effect
The name Nathan Peterman won’t inspire much confidence for Bills backers, and it’s easy to understand why. After all, this is the same man who threw five interceptions in the first half in a game against the Los Angeles Chargers last season. Regardless, Peterman earned the starting role over rookie signal-caller Josh Allen in the preseason.
Points may be hard to come by for the Bills, who averaged just 17.9 points and 300.3 total yards per game in 2017. The offensive line is also significantly weaker with the retirements of Eric Wood and Richie Incognito in the offseason. Buffalo is far from a safe bet as an underdog, going 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in its past seven games as a dog.
Which Ravens team will show up in Week 1?
The Ravens finished on the outside of the playoff picture looking in last year, and a points-starved offense is the biggest reason for that. Baltimore, which finished fourth-worst in the league with only 189.4 passing yards per game in 2017, decided to draft 2016 Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Lamar Jackson with the 32nd pick in the 2018 draft, meaning the Joe Flacco era could be coming to an end in Maryland sooner rather than later. The front office brought in wide receivers Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead in the offseason to help give the offense a jump-start.
Flacco will get the start in Week 1, but Ravens bettors can expect the club to lean heavily on running back Alex Collins. Collins paced Baltimore with 973 rushing yards and six touchdowns to easily snatch the No. 1 role on the depth chart. The Ravens and Bills have a major habit of going UNDER totals, as six of the past seven meetings between the teams have gone below the closing total with an average combined score of 34.6 points.
Why I’m on the UNDER in this game
The Ravens’ stout defensive unit, which allowed only 18.9 points per game last season, combined with the Bills’ holes on offense, could create a dream scenario for UNDER bettors, and I’m banking on this one going UNDER. The 40.5 number is relatively low, but don’t let that scare you away. After all, the Ravens have gone UNDER in seven of their past nine home games in September and the Bills cashed UNDERs in five of their final seven games to close out the 2017 campaign.
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