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Can the Bills pull off the massive upset vs ‘Sacksonville’?

The Buffalo Bills and their fans were tired of hearing about “the drought.” After 17 seasons of being an underachiever and watching the Patriots dominate the AFC East, Buffalo is ready to make it rain in Jacksonville and party like it’s 1999. The Bills may have needed a little help to get back to the postseason (big ups to the Bengals) and should relish the opportunity to try to pull off a massive upset vs the heavily favored Jaguars.

  • The total has gone OVER in the Bills’ last five games against the Jaguars.
  • The visiting team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.
  • The Jags are 5-0 SU in their last five games at home with an average margin of victory of 16.6 points.

This will be the first home playoff game in Jacksonville since 1999 (and now I’m starting to feel old). The Jags finished the season 10-6 SU overall and 6-2 SU at home, with those two losses coming against the Titans and Rams – both playoff teams. Jacksonville’s defense was a monster in the NFL as they finished second in total sacks, total interceptions and points allowed per game.

But while the casual fan knows “Sacksonville” was a dominant force, it’s on the offensive side of the ball where the Jaguars have vastly improved. They averaged just over 26 points per game, which is a full touchdown better than last season and their highest output since 1997. Blake Bortles is having a career year (by his standards) with 21 passing touchdowns and an 84.7 QBR but the elephant in the room is he still threw 13 interceptions and fumbled the ball a whopping nine times this season.

With a banged-up receiving corps and a stingy Bills secondary, which only allowed 13 passing touchdowns this season, the Jags may need to lean on a nicked-up Leonard Fournette to carry them to the next round. Fournette only topped 70 yards rushing once in the last five weeks but should have an easier time vs the Bills, who rank 29th in rushing yards allowed this season. Bettors will also be interested to know that the Jags were 3-0 SU and ATS in three games this season when they were favored by a touchdown or more.

For Buffalo, the main thing to focus on is getting LeSean McCoy healthy. The All-Pro running back went down with an ankle injury in Week 17 and will be a game-time decision to suit up. The Bills will be desperate to have him back in the lineup as Buffalo only averaged 18.9 points per game (ranked 22nd) and was 3-5 SU on the road this season.

McCoy’s presence may be the Bills’ only shot to pull off an upset. The Jaguars’ weakness this season was stopping the run and they allowed over 116 yards per game on the ground (ranked 21st). If you’re planning to back Buffalo, you’ll feel great knowing they showed flashes on the road this season when they knocked off K.C. and Atlanta and it’s worth noting they were 8-point dogs in both of those games.

And the way Jacksonville ended its season could be a great sign for Bills supporters. The Jags dropped back-to-back games to the Niners and Titans and going into the playoffs off a loss doesn’t usually bode well for teams looking to advance. In the last four seasons, teams that lost in Week 17 were 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in nine playoff games.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Betting fans looking to side with the Jacksonville Jaguars in this one found them as 6.5-point favorites earlier in the week at Bovada, while the total was sitting at 41.

A 30-12 result in favor of the Jaguars was the prediction by the OddsShark handicapping pick engine earlier this week. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Buffalo Bills will look to cover ATS vs their hosts on Sunday, as they are 8-6-2 versus the spread this season, while the Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-7 ATS. Buffalo is 8-8 against the OVER/UNDER total, while Jacksonville is 8-8 versus the number. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Jacksonville vs Buffalo injuries news.

According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 5-rated Jaguars and the No. 29-rated Bills in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Jacksonville's No. 5-ranked offense, averaging 26.06 PPG, against a Bills defense that ranks No. 18 this week at 22.44 PPG. The Jaguars aerial game is averaging 224.56 yards per game, less than the Bills secondary allows through the air, 230.5 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Bills own the league's No. 23-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 121.5 yards per game when on the road. Jacksonville, on the other hand, rates No. 6 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last game, the Bills were Week 17 winners, coming out on top of the Dolphins by a score of 22-16.

The Jaguars suffered a Week 17 loss against Tennessee in their last game, falling 15-10 at Nissan Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
  • Buffalo is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
  • Jacksonville is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
  • Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home