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Bills, Raiders Have Both Gone OVER in All Three Games

Josh Allen (17) of the Buffalo Bills is pursued by Aaron Donald (99) of the Los Angeles Rams during an NFL game at Bills Stadium on September 27, 2020.

The Buffalo Bills will look to stay perfect on the young season Sunday when they visit the Las Vegas Raiders as small road favorites in Week 4. The Bills are 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread, and the OVER is 3-0 for both teams through the first three weeks.

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
  • Date/Time: October 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Allegiant Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Bills -1.5 | O/U 49.5 (Line History)
  • Bills vs Raiders Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

With neither team’s defense playing particularly well and the OVER going 6-0 between them this season, it is not surprising to see the total up to 52.5 in early betting. It is also not surprising to see Buffalo up to -2.5 despite playing on the road for the second time in three weeks. Las Vegas deserves to be a home underdog again in this spot playing a superior unbeaten opponent but could get some late money to drive the line back down.

Buffalo News & Notes

The Bills have lived up to the preseason hype so far, although they have needed to rally in the fourth quarter to win each of their last two games after blowing leads.

Buffalo has quarterback Josh Allen to thank for that, as he has put himself in the early NFL MVP conversation with 1,038 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and only one interception. Allen threw four touchdown passes and ran for another score in a 35-32 win over the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday, but it should not have been that close because the Bills led 28-3 early in the third quarter before surrendering 29 unanswered points.

While Buffalo still managed to cover the spread as a 1.5-point home favorite, the team’s backers had to sweat it out until the very end. The Bills scored the game-winning touchdown with 15 seconds left, as Allen found tight end Tyler Kroft in the end zone for the second time.

Las Vegas News & Notes

The Raiders saw a sweet start against the New England Patriots turn sour in the second half last Sunday, falling 36-20 and failing to cover as 7-point road underdogs.

Las Vegas trailed just 13-10 at halftime after scoring a touchdown with six seconds remaining in the second quarter and had an opportunity to tie the game early in the third. But kicker Daniel Carlson missed a 41-yard field-goal attempt that seemingly turned the tide of the game. New England got a touchdown on its next possession and went on to score 23 of the next 26 points to turn a close game into a rout.

The Raiders were playing on a short week, though, and saw their two best offensive players struggle, with running back Josh Jacobs rushing for 71 yards and tight end Darren Waller totaling only nine yards on two catches. Jacobs (hip) and Waller (knee) were both listed as questionable on the injury report before the game, and quarterback Derek Carr will need each of them to be better in Week 4. 

Betting Pick: OVER 52.5

The numbers do not lie in this matchup, with Buffalo and Las Vegas sitting as two of the highest-scoring teams in the AFC after the first three weeks. The Raiders have also given up more points (90) than they have scored (88), and the Bills are averaging 31 points per game. It is hard to imagine fewer than 60 points scored here, so bet the OVER with confidence.

Shark Bites
  • The Bills are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.
  • The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The OVER is 6-0 in the past 6 meetings (avg. 55.83 points).