Big D: Bills-Steelers Clash Boasts Lowest Point Total of Week 15

Buffalo had its three-game winning streak snapped and failed to cover +6.5 at home in a 24-17 loss to the Ravens. Josh Allen’s Bills fell to 9-4 straight up and 8-4-1 against the spread this season.

As expected, the Steelers won ugly as 2.5-point road favorites at Arizona. Pittsburgh’s 23-17 victory and cover improved its record to 8-5 overall and 7-4-2 ATS. Mike Tomlin’s squad has now won seven of its last eight games.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Pittsburgh opened as a 1-point home favorite before a slight uptick to Steelers -1.5. Buffalo’s moneyline opened at -120 before a move to plus money at +110 at most books. The point total opened and remains at a Week 15 low of 37.

The total has gone UNDER in the Steelers’ last five games with an average combined score of 31.20 points.

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Bills’ 13 games with an average combined score of 37.38.

Buffalo News & Notes

If you wanted to make a case that the Bills’ 9-4 record requires a strength of schedule asterisk, you’d have plenty of evidence to defend the argument. Buffalo has faced only three teams with winning records heading into Week 15. They lost to the Patriots and Ravens, while picking up a 14-7 win at Tennessee back in early October.

Heading into the regular season, it was suspected that Josh Allen’s offense was going to struggle to score points. So, their 21.1 points per game average may be four or more points above the projected total. However, Baltimore’s defense really locked down on the Bills last Sunday and presents a blueprint for the Steelers’ elite defense to follow this weekend.

Buffalo’s offense posted some of the least efficient numbers of the season against Baltimore and now faces a Steelers defense that ranks in the top 10 in all of those stat categories.

There’s a reason the total opened at 37 and isn’t expected to move much, and these stats illustrate that reason. It’s going to be a defensive slog where first downs and field goals will be worthy of celebration. The fact that Josh Allen has nearly two seasons of experience will be vital.

Allen is 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS with UNDERS in six of the Bills’ last seven road games dating back to last December.

Pittsburgh News & Notes

If you miss the game-managing talents of Alex Smith, may I interest you in Devlin “Duck” Hodges ahead of a must-win, prime-time matchup? To be fair, the Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS in Hodges’ three starts this season, but his impact is overshadowed by the elite play of the Steelers defense. In those starts, Hodges is averaging 165 pass yards per game with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Of the 67 points scored during his three starts, Pittsburgh’s defense and special teams has accounted for 35 (52.2%).

Hodges’ offense now faces a Bills defense that looks like this:

As you digest those stats that heavily favor the Bills defense in a head-to-head matchup with Hodges, we wait to hear if both running back James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster return from injury. Conner hasn’t played in a month due to a nagging shoulder injury, while Smith-Schuster is expected to return from a concussion suffered in the first Browns game back on November 14. However, as one likely returns, tight end Vance McDonald is questionable with a concussion sustained during the Cardinals game.

Betting Pick: Bills ML

The Bills’ Thanksgiving Day win over the Cowboys was diluted after Dallas lost at Chicago. However, Buffalo hanging with Baltimore through their Week 14 matchup leads me to believe the Steelers are actually somewhat overvalued with a Duck Hodges-led offense. Yes, points will be at a premium, but Buffalo pulls off the slight upset.