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Panthers are in Major Trouble as Big Dogs in New England

An excellent week for underdogs saw the Patriots survive by the skin of Tom Brady’s perfectly aligned teeth against the Texans and they opened as 8.5-point favorites for their matchup with the Panthers. Both teams are 2-1 on the season but the Cats are coming off a drubbing at the hands of the Saints and they’re in danger of getting blown out at Gillette Stadium in Week 4.

  • The Panthers are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games as underdogs of 9 points or more.
  • The Patriots are 19-1 SU in their last 20 home games as favorites of 9 points or more.
  • The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as favorites of 9 points or more.

I gave the Panthers the benefit of the doubt for their poor offensive performance in the first two weeks but putting up just 13 points and 288 total yards against the Saints’ porous defense is inexcusable. Cam Newton threw three picks in the loss and was replaced by Derek Anderson late in the game.

The Patriots defense has been a mess so far, giving up more yards than any other team in the NFL through three games, but after watching the Panthers on Sunday, I’m fairly confident they’ll be able to keep the de-clawed Cats at bay on home turf.

Looking at the offense, Tom Brady is starting to roll with his new unit. He’s thrown eight touchdowns and compiled over 800 yards in the Pats’ last two games and he’s developing some chemistry with speedster Brandin Cooks. The former Saint caught five passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns – including the winner – against the Texans, endearing himself to the Foxborough faithful after a relatively slow start.

Carolina’s defense had been OK the first two weeks but it was exposed by New Orleans in Week 3 and looks extremely vulnerable heading to New England. There’s nothing stopping the Pats from putting up 35 or more points in the contest and I don’t think Cam can keep up.

After a week that saw underdogs go 11-4 against the spread, 8.5 seems like a big number to cover,  but I’m expecting Brady and Belichick to roll over the Panthers in the way we’ve grown to expect from the Patriot machine.

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Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Betting fans looking to back the visiting Carolina Panthers in this one found them as 8.5-point underdogs earlier in the week, while the total was settling in the neighborhood of 47 at shops such as Bovada.

OddsShark NFL prediction models pointed to a 29-19 result in favor of the Patriots on Sunday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The New England Patriots sport a record of 2-1 and 1-2 ATS heading into this betting matchup, while the Carolina Panthers sit at 2-1 and 1-1-1 ATS on the season. The OVER/UNDER totals records are 3-0 for the Patriots and 1-2 for the Panthers. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Carolina injuries news.

According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 2-rated New England Patriots and the No. 28-rated Carolina Panthers in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits New England's No. 2-ranked offense, averaging 33 PPG, against a Panthers defense that ranks No. 2 this week at 13.33 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 340 yards per game, more than the Panthers secondary allows through the air, 162 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Carolina Panthers own the league's No. 1-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 51 yards per game when on the road. New England, on the other hand, rates No. 19 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last gridiron battle, Christian McCaffrey did much of the damage, producing 101 receiving yards but New Orleans managed to defeat the Panthers 34-13 at Bank of America Stadium.

New England comes off a game where it received a 5-TD performance from Tom Brady in defeating the Texans 36-33.

Betting Trends
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
  • Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Carolina is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
  • Carolina is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
  • New England is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
  • New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
  • New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Carolina at Detroit, Sunday, October 8
New England at Tampa Bay, Thursday, October 5