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Betting Preview: Chicago Bears vs Washington Redskins

Chicago’s Eddy Pineiro was the Week 2 hero, but it’ll take more than a field goal to cover at Washington.

Chicago Bears vs Washington Redskins (Matchup Report)

Date/Time: September 23, 8:20 p.m. ET

TV Coverage: ESPN Monday Night Game

Opening Odds: Chicago -4.5 | O/U 48.5 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

The Bears opened as 4.5-point road favorites, but the line has pushed Chicago to -5.5. Washington’s moneyline opened at +173 and the point total at 42.5 before oddsmakers shaved it down to 41.

Chicago is 3-7 ATS as a road favorite of 4 or fewer points over its past 10 games, while Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS in the last three games as a home dog. However, dating back to last year, the Redskins are 4-1 ATS when home dogs of 4 or fewer points.

The Bears finished the 2018 regular season a league-best 12-4 against the spread, but after failing to cover the closing -3 line at Denver, Chicago is 0-2 ATS to start this season. The Redskins were 9-7 ATS last year and 1-1 ATS this season after failing to cover +6 at home against the Cowboys.

Chicago News & Notes

After the double-doink heard ‘round the world ended their 2018 season, Chicago kicker Eddy Pineiro has been nails through the first two weeks. He connected on all three of his Week 2 field goals – including the game-winner from 53 yards out – and has made all four this season. However, one of Pineiro’s stats is most telling: he’s 1-for-1 on extra points. That’s right, the Bears have scored one touchdown through the first two games.

Mitch Trubisky averaged 4.4 yards per pass and lead running back David Montgomery tallied just 3.4 yards per rush attempt against the Broncos. This leads to a paltry 3-for-11 on third downs and 16 total points. The Bears now rank bottom five in total yards, pass yards and points per game (9.5).

While the Bears defense did hold the Broncos to 14 points, Joe Flacco still managed to pass for 292 yards. However, through their first two games, Chicago’s defense has picked up where it left off, ranking top six in total and rush yards allowed and points allowed per game (12.0). After leading the league in takeaways last season, the Bears have forced one turnover through the first two weeks.

Washington News & Notes

Despite the 0-2 record, Washington has to be pretty pleased with Case Keenum’s first two games. He’s completed 69 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions. However, the loss of Derrius Guice (knee) to IR will really turn the Redskins into a one-dimensional offense unless Adrian Peterson can grab a drink from the fountain of youth because 2.5 yards per rush on 10 carries against the Cowboys isn’t what you want with Chicago’s front seven on deck.

Lucky for the Redskins that the Bears are coming to town and not the Kansas City Chiefs. Washington’s secondary allowed Dak Prescott to complete 18 consecutive passes in Week 2 and engineer three touchdown drives of 75 or more yards.

Washington has not committed a turnover through the first two weeks. If they toss a pick or fumble the football against the Bears, the defense isn’t in a position to bail them out.

Betting Pick: UNDER 42.5

The UNDER has hit in six consecutive Bears games dating back to last season. Washington’s offense will look to grind clock behind Adrian Peterson, while I’m not sure the Redskins’ 31.5 points allowed per game directly correlates to the Chicago offense’s chances of scoring more than one touchdown. With the UNDER hitting in 19 of the first 31 NFL games this season, I like it – but get it early as it’s already gone from 42.5 to 42. Also considering a possible sprinkle on the Bears spread should the line come down.

Shark Bites
  • The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at night.
  • The Redskins are 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games (avg. losing margin: 16.8).
  • The Bears are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games in September.