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Disappointing Cowboys Looking for First Cover as Home Faves vs Browns

Dak Prescott (4) of the Dallas Cowboys reacts after throwing an interception against the Seattle Seahawks during a game at CenturyLink Field on September 27, 2020 in Seattle.

The Cleveland Browns have a winning record for the first time since 2014 as they visit the Dallas Cowboys as solid road underdogs on Sunday in a key Week 4 matchup. The Browns will be going for their first road win while the Cowboys are 0-3 against the spread.

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys
  • Date/Time: October 4, 1 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: AT&T Stadium
  • TV Coverage: Fox
  • Opening Odds: Cowboys -5 | O/U 54 (Line History)
  • Browns vs Cowboys Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

While Dallas has yet to cover the spread this season, Cleveland brings a seven-game road losing streak into this contest both straight up and ATS. The line has dipped slightly to -4.5, but it would be surprising to see it move much more in either direction barring injuries. Meanwhile, the total has risen 2 points in early betting and could go up even more considering these are two teams that can score a lot and do not play much defense.

Cleveland News & Notes

The Browns have not been overly impressive in winning their last two games at home vs Cincinnati and Washington, going 1-1 ATS with the OVER cashing both times.

The challenge for them now will be trying to find a way to earn a rare victory away from home, something that has not happened since they stunned the Baltimore Ravens 40-25 as 7-point road underdogs in last year’s regular-season opener.

Cleveland’s recent success can be attributed to a balanced offense and particularly a strong running game that has kept quarterback Baker Mayfield from having to do too much. Running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have combined to form arguably the best duo in the league, and Mayfield has not had to force throws in an effort to make plays himself. If Chubb and Hunt can continue to run hard, the Browns can be competitive here.

Dallas News & Notes

If the Houston Texans have played the toughest early schedule in the AFC, then the Cowboys may have earned that distinction so far in the NFC.

Dallas has had to play the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks away from home in two of the first three weeks and needed to rally back from a 15-point deficit in the last five minutes to beat the Atlanta Falcons 40-39 at home in Week 2. All three of the team’s games have been decided by seven points or less following a 38-31 loss at Seattle last Sunday.

The Cowboys led the Seahawks 31-30 with 3:59 remaining but simply could not stop NFL MVP favorite Russell Wilson, who threw his fifth touchdown pass with 1:47 left to win it and then added the two-point conversion. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 472 yards in the loss and must get more help from running back Ezekiel Elliott (34 yards).

Betting Pick: Browns +5

Cleveland has built some confidence lately in wins over Cincinnati and Washington, and Mayfield has what it takes to keep up with Prescott through the air. Dallas has given up more than 32 points per game and continues to deal with key injuries on that side of the ball. This one will likely come down to which defense can perform better and make more stops, and the Browns will be good enough to keep it close and cover the spread.

Shark Bites
  • The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.
  • The UNDER is 4-0 in the past 4 meetings.
  • The Browns are 0-7 SU and ATS in their last 7 road games.