An all-Texas showdown will be played under the bright lights in Week 5’s Sunday Night Football game with the Cowboys and Texans looking for some momentum after sluggish starts. Both are coming off dramatic wins in Week 4 but that’s about the only on-field commonality that they have this season as Houston is allowing 7.8 more points per game than Dallas, but the Texans are outscoring the Cowboys by 7.2 points per game. The Texans opened the week as a 3.5-point favorite with the total coming in at 45.
- The Texans are 4-22-1 ATS in their last 27 games at night.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys’ last six games on the road (avg. combined score: 29.67).
- Deshaun Watson is averaging 356.6 passing yards over his last three games.
Can Dallas Keep up on Offense?
Deshaun Watson has been a passing machine in Weeks 2 through 4, averaging 356.6 passing yards per game. During that same span, Dak Prescott has averaged 194.3 passing yards. The lack of a passing attack for Dallas has the team ranking 27th overall in time of possession, while Houston ranks 16th. The play of Dallas’ offense has been especially troubling on the road as they’ve scored a combined 21 points in their two road games compared to 46 in two home games. Based on these facts and with Watson becoming unleashed after a rough Sportsbook week in New England, no, I don’t think the Cowboys can hang with the Texans offense, but…
Will Dallas need to keep up on offense?
The Cowboys quietly have one of the better defenses in the league through four weeks, ranking fourth in opponent yards per play and seventh in points allowed, so the defense might be able to take some pressure off the offense by keeping points off the board. Strong defensive stats, for sure, but this will be the best offense they’ve played this season as the Texans rank higher than their four previous opponents in points per game and higher than three of them in yards per play.
The Cowboys allowed 24 points vs the Lions last week — the most they’ve allowed this season. It’s not much of a coincidence that they were missing their top defensive player, Sean Lee, who will also be out in Week 5. As a result, I think their offense will need to step up, which is something I’m not sure they’re capable of doing considering they’re averaging just 14.1 points per game going back to Week 16 of last season.
Texans are Historically Awful in Night Games
The nighttime has been the wrong time for the Texans as they’re a pathetic 4-22-1 ATS in their last 27 prime-time games. However, this is nothing more than a historical betting fact and shouldn’t really factor into your betting decision for this game as the team has had lots of roster and coaching turnover during the span of those games.
For what it’s worth, Houston went 1-1 SU and ATS in night games last season with Deshaun Watson under center. He compiled five TDs and 0 INTs with a 108.6 QB rating in those games.
My Best Bet for Cowboys vs Texans:
I like the Texans to win and I don’t anticipate an offensive outburst from the Cowboys, but there’s some red flags that make me hesitant to make an ATS or totals bet. As a result, I’ll be teasing the Texans to +3 and the UNDER up to 51.5 (6-point teaser at -120 odds).
