Through their first five games, the Cowboys averaged just 16.6 points per contest. Against what most would consider an elite NFL defense, they flipped the script and dropped 41 points on the Jaguars. Granted, the Cowboys found creative ways to get Dak Prescott involved to exploit Jacksonville’s weaknesses against the rush, but for as bad as Dallas has looked, it’s now 3-3 straight up and against the spread this season.
Washington’s Alex Smith game-managed, Adrian Peterson posted 5.7 yards per rush and the Redskins didn’t commit one turnover in a small upset win over the Panthers to improve to 3-2 SU and ATS. The Redskins opened as 2.5-point home favorites, but some Cowboys money poured in to drop that to WAS -1.5 by Monday morning with the Cowboys moneyline at +114 and the point total at 41.5.
- The Cowboys are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs the Redskins (avg. winning margin: 11.75).
- The Redskins are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
- The Redskins are 1-7 SU in their last eight games after a win.
Cowboys vs Redskins Game Center
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 6
Cowboys – In their three wins, the Cowboys have not committed one turnover. In their three losses, they’ve committed six turnovers. Through its first five games, Washington has forced nine turnovers, three of them coming against the Panthers.
Dallas may have scored 41 points against the top-ranked pass defense of the Jaguars, but Prescott completed just 17 of 27 passes for 183 yards and 90 percent of his passes were to Cole Beasley. The Cowboys’ passing game troubles aren’t fixed and Washington ranks sixth against the rush at 90.2 yards allowed per game.
Redskins – This wasn’t the same team that laid an egg at New Orleans in Week 5. Adrian Peterson averaged 5.7 yards per rush, Jordan Reed saw nine targets and was involved in the offense and Washington converted eight of 18 on third and fourth downs. In Washington’s three wins, Peterson is averaging 17-18 carries and 104 rush yards per game.
Dallas ranks seventh against the rush at 90.7 yards allowed per game.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS - STOP ZEKE
With 106 yards on 24 carries against the Jaguars, Ezekiel Elliott has now eclipsed 100 rushing yards in three of his past four games. If history tells us anything, it’s that the Redskins need to keep Zeke under the century mark.
Since 2015, Washington is 12-19-1 straight up and 15-17 against the spread when it allows 100 or more rushing yards in a game.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS – THE GAME MANAGER
Alex Smith passed for less than 200 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers in the Redskins’ win and cover against the Panthers in Week 6. It’s the 30th time Smith has posted that statistical hat trick during his career. His teams are 18-12 straight up and against the spread when he passes for 200 yards or less with two or fewer touchdowns and no interceptions. However, since 2013, when he joined the Chiefs, his teams are 4-0 straight up and against the spread under those conditions.
LANDOVER, MARYLAND FORECAST
Mostly sunny with temperatures in the low 50s, low humidity and winds 10-15 miles per hour.
Cowboys rookie kicker Brett Maher connected on four field goals and four extra points in the team’s beatdown of the Jaguars. His only missed field goal came back in Week 1. Washington’s Dustin Hopkins has made 10 of 11 field-goal tries this season. He’s an 85 percent field-goal kicker in four seasons with the Redskins.
MY PICK
Is this a Cowboys trap? It is, isn’t it? Bettors and those thinking of backing the Cowboys are supposed to look at the Jaguars game as the moment when America’s Team woke up, right? I’m not falling for it. Washington has beaten above-average opponents Carolina and Green Bay in its past two home games. Dallas is averaging 12 points per game on the road, while the Redskins defense has allowed just 18.3 at FedExField. Give me the game manager Alex Smith and let’s see if Adrian Peterson can string together back-to-back vintage performances. Washington covers the 1.5.
