New England may sit alone atop the AFC, but the Patriots offense has scored just 37 points in its last two games combined. Tom Brady and the Pats look to get their attack back on track Sunday when they host a Dallas Cowboys squad that is 0-6 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records.
- Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots (Matchup Report)
- Date/Time: November 24, 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV Coverage: FOX
- Sportsbook Odds: New England -6.5 | O/U 46 (Line History)
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
Savvy bettors lick their lips every time they see the Patriots favored by a touchdown or less at home. New England is a remarkable 14-3-3 ATS and 19-1 SU in its last 20 games when laying a touchdown or less in Foxborough. Still, early money backed the Cowboys, betting Dallas down to +6 at Sportsbook.
Dallas News & Notes
The Cowboys continued to fatten up against mediocre opposition last week in Detroit, beating the Matthew Stafford-less Lions 35-27 to improve to 5-1 ATS this season when facing opponents below .500.
Against teams above .500, however, Dallas hasn’t been nearly as successful lately. In fact, the Cowboys are on an 0-6 ATS slide against foes with winning records. Two weeks ago, they lost at home as 3.5-point favorites over the Vikings, and they’ve also lost outright as chalk against the Packers and Saints.
In order to turn that trend around this weekend vs the Pats, the Cowboys would be best served to turn around another alarming trend: slow starts. Dallas has scored a first-quarter touchdown in just one of its last seven games, while the Cowboys D ranks near the bottom of the league in first-quarter points allowed. Just two plays into last week’s game, Ezekiel Elliott fumbled on the Dallas 28-yard line, setting up a Lions touchdown five plays later.
New England News & Notes
For a quarterback of a 9-1 team, Tom Brady wasn’t too happy following last week’s 17-10 victory in Philadelphia. Brady and the Patriots offense sputtered for the second game in a row, managing just 19 first downs and 298 total yards against the Eagles.
New England’s only touchdown last week came on a 15-yard trick pass play from Julian Edelman to Phillip Dorsett, and the Patriots settled for field goals on two of their three red-zone trips. New England has now been held to 20 points or less in three of its last seven games.
“Up and down. That’s what it looks like to me. We could probably do everything better,” said Brady, who has not thrown a touchdown pass in three of the Pats’ 10 games this season.
Already thin at receiver and tight end, the Patriots may be without Dorsett this week after the receiver left last week’s game with a head injury. The run game hasn’t done much to help Brady lately, either, collecting just 74 yards in each of its last two outings.
New England has suddenly become an UNDER team, staying below the total in seven of its last 10 games overall.
Betting Pick: Patriots -6.5
I’ll happily lay under a touchdown with the Patriots at home, especially against a Dallas squad that hasn’t proven it can beat quality opposition.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Cowboys’ last 13 games.
- The Patriots are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Cowboys’ last 8 games vs the Patriots.
