Fresh Off Their Bye, Cowboys a Touchdown Favorite at Rival Giants

Before the Week 8 bye, Dallas stopped a three-game skid with a blowout win over the Eagles.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Cowboys opened as 9-point road favorites, but the line pulled back to Dallas -7. The Giants moneyline opened at +273 and the point total at 47 before a tick up to 48. The total has gone OVER in the Cowboys’ last seven games following a bye.

Before their Week 8 bye, the Cowboys blew out the Eagles 37-10 to improve to 4-3 SU and ATS. While New York fell to 2-6 straight up, Daniel Jones’ fourth touchdown pass handed the Giants a backdoor cover at Detroit to improve to 3-5 ATS. It was their first cover in nearly a month.

Dallas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games following a bye. This will be only the second time since 2016 that the Cowboys have been road favorites of 7 or more points. They failed to cover -7 at the Jets three weeks ago, losing outright 24-22.

The Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 with three consecutive covers when home dogs of 7 or more points. This will be Daniel Jones’ first start against the Cowboys. Eli Manning started in Week 1 when New York lost 35-17.

Dallas News and Notes

Led by Ezekiel Elliott’s 111 yards on five yards per carry, the Cowboys racked up 189 yards rushing against an Eagles rush defense that allows 90.5 per game. Elliott looks to feast on the Giants’ 22nd-ranked rush defense, which allows 122.4 RYPG.

The Dallas defense forced four of its nine turnovers this season in the win over Philly, which Dak Prescott and company converted into 21 points. The Giants lead the league in turnovers with 19. Sub-optimal.

The Cowboys sent a seventh-round draft pick to the Patriots in exchange for defensive end Michael Bennett late last week. Fellow defensive end Robert Quinn injured his rib(s) last time out and is questionable. Leighton Vander Esch left the Eagles game early with a neck injury, but it’s reported to be just a stinger and he should play Monday night. At the end of the day, the Cowboys are much healthier than they were during their three-game skid and that made all the difference in their win over the Eagles.

New York News and Notes

A day after losing their fourth consecutive game, the Giants traded two draft picks away to the Jets in exchange for defensive tackle Leonard Williams. If only Williams could drop back into pass coverage. New York allowed Matthew Stafford to complete 25 of 32 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns. The Giants allow 264 pass yards per game, eighth-most in the league, and opposing quarterbacks are completing better than 70 percent of their passes against New York.

Before passing for 322 yards and four touchdowns against Detroit’s league-worst pass defense, Daniel Jones averaged 197.8 pass yards with four touchdowns and seven interceptions in his previous four starts. Look for Jones’ stat line to regress to the mean against the Cowboys’ ninth-ranked pass defense that held Carson Wentz to 191 passing yards.

Since returning from a high ankle sprain, Saquon Barkley is averaging just 3.7 yards per rush on 37 attempts. He did chip in eight receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown against the Lions.

On the injury front, wide receiver Sterling Shepard missed his third straight game due to a concussion and is questionable for Monday night.

Betting Pick: Lean Cowboys -7

Dallas is healthy/healthier, while the Giants are regressing to what we expected them to be at the start of the season. I’d be interested in attacking the Cowboys team total OVER 28.5 (may be too high at -115) against this Giants defense, but Cowboys -7 is my lean.