The Kansas City Chiefs have been the definition of a rock-solid bet in 2018, as Patrick Mahomes and company have covered the spread in all seven of their games to open the campaign. The Chiefs will look to make it eight covers in a row when they welcome the Denver Broncos to Arrowhead Stadium in Week 8 action. Sportsbooks opened the Chiefs as 10-point home favorites with a total of 55.
- The Broncos are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games vs the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs are 8-0 SU in their last eight games vs their division at home.
- The Broncos are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
Chiefs’ ATS streak has been historic
The Chiefs’ 7-0 ATS record is remarkable for a number of reasons, as Kansas City is just the third team to start a season with seven consecutive covers since 2003, joining the 2007 New England Patriots and 2008 Tennessee Titans in that club. If the Chiefs cover vs the Broncos, they’d tie the ’07 Patriots for the best ATS start in the past 16 years. An interesting note regarding that Pats team is after covering in those eight contests, they finished the season at only 2-9 ATS.
The Broncos were on the verge of looking like they were heading toward another lost season but bounced back in a big way against the Arizona Cardinals in the Week 7 edition of Thursday Night Football, hammering the Cards 45-10 in prime time. Denver managed to keep things close against the Los Angeles Rams in a 23-20 loss in Week 6, so at least the Broncos have given some inspiration for their bettors in that regard.
Broncos looking to buck a poor trend against the Chiefs
To say the Chiefs have had a major edge over the Broncos in recent seasons would be an understatement. In Kansas City’s past six meetings with Denver, it’s 6-0 SU and ATS. The Chiefs knocked off Denver 27-23 at Mile High Stadium in Week 4, with Kansas City barely covering as 3.5-point road faves.
The Chiefs have also been punishing teams within their division when playing in the raucous Arrowhead Stadium, going 8-0 SU in their past eight home games against AFC West clubs. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six contests against divisional opponents. Once again, the Broncos and Chiefs look like they’re trending in opposite directions ahead of this one.
My pick: take the OVER
While the Chiefs’ ATS streak has been historic, oddsmakers are starting to smarten up when it comes to setting their lines and the -10 Sportsbook number shows it. While I think K.C. will win this game, I’m going to stay away from the spread and take the OVER instead. Both teams combined for 50 points in their last meeting, and with the Broncos offense operating better right now, I expect them to easily eclipse the total in Week 8.
