The Green Bay Packers are coming off a much-needed break from the bye after a slow 3-2-1 SU start to the season and that rest will be needed for the challenge of facing the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8. The Rams are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and are beating teams by an average of 12.4 points per game this season. The Rams opened as 9-point favorites, the most points the Packers have ever been given with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback, with a total at 57.
- The Packers are 7-3 SU and 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games after the bye.
- The Rams lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (153.1).
- The final score has only surpassed 57 points in 6 of the Rams’ last 23 games.
Packers Have Been Decent When Coming off the Bye
This season has been a slog for the Packers since the Week 1 hit to Aaron Rodgers that made his knee buckle and would keep most people laid up on the couch for a three-month recovery. Rodgers’ mobility has been severely hampered from that hit so the bye was a much-needed break to get treatment and try to get the offense back in sync.
In Rodgers’ career, coming off a bye has done wonders for the Packers and bettors’ bankrolls as Green Bay is 7-3 SU and 6-2-2 ATS in 10 games after the break. The Packers are averaging 26.9 points in those games and that includes last year’s defeat vs the Lions when Rodgers was out and Brett “out of the league in three years” Hundley led them to 17 points.
Green Bay’s defense may be able to slow down the Rams’ passing attack as it ranks fifth in passing yards allowed per game (212). But to keep Todd Gurley out of the end zone will be a near-impossible task as the Packers have given up an average of 116.5 rushing yards per game (ranked 22nd) and let a third-string running back, the Niners’ Raheem Mostert, average 7.3 yards per carry on them.
While I’d love to take the points for Green Bay, I need to see more in road games before I give the Packers the benefit of the doubt. In their two road games this year vs the Lions and Redskins, the Pack are 0-2 SU and ATS and have been outscored by 22 points.
Rams’ Rushing Attack Is Near-Impossible to Stop
Todd Gurley. The two scariest words for an NFL defensive coordinator these days as the fourth-year running back is averaging a career-high 4.8 yards per carry and leads the NFL with 11 touchdowns on the ground and 14 touchdowns overall. Why that is so impressive isn’t that Gurley is outscoring the Bills or Cardinals by himself, it’s that his longest run of the season is only 29 yards. This means that the Rams are just clocking first downs when they hand him the ball (they lead the NFL in first downs), which is why the Rams also lead the NFL in rushing yards per game.
The Rams offense is obviously amazing and Sean McVay deserves a ton of credit for revitalizing Jared Goff’s career but the defense has stepped its game up too. Los Angeles ranks fourth in points allowed per game (18.3) and is in the top 10 in both rushing yards and passing yards allowed per game. To be fair, the Rams have only faced two offenses that rank in the top half of the NFL in points scored per game (Vikings and Chargers) so they may be vulnerable when playing against an elite quarterback and superior competition.
The Rams have yet to lose on the spread when playing at home (2-0-1 ATS) and are also 3-0 ATS in their last three games when favored by 9.5 or more.
UNDER May Be The Right Call
The total opened at 57 points in this NFC showdown and while both teams are scoring a ton of points this season, I’m predicting an UNDER in this game. In the Rams’ last 23 games (since the start of last season), the final score has only gone OVER 57 points in six of those games.
My Pick is…
To take the UNDER. I sense that the only way this game is going OVER is if the Packers score 21 points or more and they’ve been awful in road games this season. Look for some regression from the Rams offense and a much closer game than oddsmakers are predicting.
