Coming off the longest game in NFL history – seven hours and eight minutes, thanks to nearly four hours of lightning delays – the hobbled Titans return home for Week 2 to host AFC South foe Houston. Tennessee may be without its top tandem as Marcus Mariota is dealing with an elbow injury, which he says impacted the feeling in his fingers and grip, and Delanie Walker is likely out for the season after dislocating and fracturing his ankle in the Week 1 loss to the Dolphins. Due to these two injuries, no line has been assigned to this matchup as of Monday.
- The Texans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Titans.
- The Titans are 1-5 SU in their last six games at home in September.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Texans’ last nine games in September.
WHAT’S UP WITH WATSON?
Deshaun Watson was unimpressive in his 2018 regular-season debut at New England. The second-year quarterback, who threw for 1,699 yards with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions in an ACL-abridged rookie season, turned the ball over twice, only completed 50 percent of his passes and converted just two of five trips in the red zone.
However, the bend-don’t-break Patriots defense is a little different than a Titans unit that allowed Ryan Tannehill to complete 20 of 28 passes for 230 yards with two touchdowns and two picks. Watson really needs Will Fuller to return from a hamstring injury to maximize the Texans’ vertical threat. Bill O’Brien says it’s possible he does in Week 2.
MILLER TIME: LAMAR HAS TASTY MATCHUP
Before Week 1, the last time Lamar Miller rushed 20 times and averaged 4.9 yards per rush or better in a game was Week 16 of the 2016 season against the Colts. In fact, the last two times Miller’s rushed 20 times and averaged 4.9-plus YPR in a game, it’s been against the Colts.
The immortal Frank Gore just carved up the Tennessee rush defense for 61 yards on nine carries or 6.8 yards per rush and the Dolphins averaged 4.1 YPR as a team in Week 1. Should Watson struggle again, he may need to look to Miller to shoulder the load again.
NEXT LEVEL BETTING TRENDS: TITANS PASSING
While we wait on word regarding Mariota’s elbow and Week 2 availability, we dug into some next-level betting trends linked to the Titans quarterback.
Over the course of his entire career, the Titans are 16-17 straight up and only 13-18-2 against the spread when Mariota passes for more than 200 yards. This could mean a few different things, but should remind bettors how important the Titans rush attack was under DeMarco Murray and now Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis.
But let’s just say for argument’s sake that Blaine Gabbert gets the Week 2 nod. The Texans secondary was just dealt a huge blow as top defensive back Kevin Johnson is out indefinitely with a concussion. Gabby completed 11 of 22 passes for 176 yards against the Dolphins. The Texans allowed Tom Brady to carve them up for 277 pass yards and now with the loss of Johnson, Mariota and/or Gabbert could lean pass.
NEXT LEVEL BETTING TRENDS: J.J. Watt
After missing the final 11 games of the 2017 regular season, Watt tallied three tackles and two QB hits on Brady in Week 1. Despite no Jack Conklin, who is working his way back from an ACL injury, and Taylor Lewan’s early exit in Week 1 due to a concussion, the Titans offensive line didn’t allow a sack. Pro Football Focus ranked the Tennessee O-line fifth-best in the NFL during the summer.
Before missing 24 games over the past two seasons, Watt averaged better than 17 sacks per campaign the previous four. For as much ink as those turf takedowns receive, Watt’s sack history isn’t a game changer for bettors. The Texans are 17-22 straight up and 20-19 ATS when their pass rusher is held without a sack.
NASHVILLE WEATHER REPORT
Mostly sunny with temperatures near 90 degrees and 60 percent humidity.
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