It’s obvious an NFL team is on a decline, beginning a rebuild or entering a new era when they fire a head coach. Whether they’re the scapegoat or the actual problem, all fingers point to them until they’re shown the door.
Then, once final farewells are done, the glimpse of hope happens – a brand new head coach to bet on with high expectations to reboot the program on a short timeline. I’ll admit I’m guilty of it too; I assume my team will go from the bad to better with a fresh leader in the locker room.
But that’s not always the case and often, that spark needs a bit of time to ignite. That’s why figuring out how to bet on a first-year head coach can sometimes be unpredictable.
This article takes a look at every first-year head coach over the past five seasons. It focuses on each one’s first year with the team, outlining the records and betting results that followed during the preseason and regular-season play.
Below we’ll break down potential patterns with the first-year head coaches over the past five seasons to make your bets for this season easier to decide.
Head Coach First-Year Betting Records
| Coach | First Year | Overall Record | Home | Away | ATS Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Eberflus (CHI) | 2022* | 3-0 (100.0%) | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 (100.0%) |
| Nathaniel Hackett (DEN) | 2022 | 2-1 (66.6%) | 2-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 (66.6%) |
| Mike McDaniel (MIA) | 2022 | 2-1 (66.6%) | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 (66.6%) |
| Kevin O’Connell (MIN) | 2022 | 0-3 (00.0%) | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-3 (00.0%) |
| Brian Daboll (NYG) | 2022 | 2-1 (66.6%) | 1-0 | 1-1 | 3-0 (100.0%) |
| Arthur Smith (ATL) | 2021 | 7-13 (35.0%) | 2-8> | 5-5 | 6-13-1 (31.5%) |
| David Culley (HOU) | 2021 | 6-14 (30.0%) | 2-8 | 4-6> | 10-10 (50.0%) |
| Urban Meyer (JAC) | 2021 | 3-13 (18.7%) | 2-6 | 1-7 | 6-10 (37.5%) |
| Brandon Staley (LAC) | 2021 | 10-10 (50.0%) | 5-5 | 5-5 | 10-10 (50.0%) |
| Rich Bisaccia (LV) | 2021 | 5-6 (45.4%) | 2-3 | 3-3 | 4-7 (36.3%) |
| Robert Saleh (NYJ) | 2021 | 6-13-1 (31.5%) | 3-6-1 | 3-7 | 8-12 (40.0%) |
| Nick Sirianni (PHI) | 2021 | 9-11-1 (45.0%) | 3-7 | 6-4-1 | 9-11-1 (45.0%) |
| Matt Rhule (CAR) | 2020 | 5-11 (31.2%) | 2-6 | 3-5 | 9-7 (56.2%) |
| Kevin Stefanski (CLE) | 2020 | 12-6 (66.6%) | 6-2 | 6-4 | 8-10 (44.4%) |
| Robert Prince (DET) | 2020 | 0-1 (00.0%) | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 (00.0%) |
| Darrell Bevell (DET) | 2020 | 1-3 (25.0%) | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Joe Judge (NYG) | 2020 | 6-10 (37.5%) | 3-5 | 3-5 | 9-7 (56.2%) |
| Kliff Kingsbury (ARI) | 2019 | 6-13-1 (31.58) | 3-6-1 | 3-7 | 10-8-2 (55.5%) |
| Zac Taylor (CIN) | 2019 | 3-17 (15.0%) | 2-8 | 1-9 | 7-12-1 (36.8%) |
| Freddie Kitchens (CLE) | 2019 | 9-11 (45.0%) | 6-4 | 3-7 | 7-12-1 (36.8%) |
| Vic Fangio (DEN) | 2019 | 9-12 (42.8%) | 6-4 | 3-8 | 11-10 (52.3%) |
| Matt LaFleur (GB) | 2019 | 16-6 (72.7%) | 10-1 | 6-5 | 13-9 (59.0%) |
| Brian Flores (MIA) | 2019 | 8-12 (40.0%) | 5-5 | 3-7 | 13-7 (65.0%) |
| Bill Callahan (WAS) | 2019 | 3-8 (27.2%) | 1-4 | 2-4 | 5-6 (45.4%) |
| Steve Wilks (ARI) | 2018 | 6-14 (30.0%) | 2-8 | 4-6 | 10-9-1 (52.6%) |
| Matt Nagy (CHI) | 2018 | 14-8 (63.6%) | 8-3 | 6-5 | 15-7 (68.1%) |
| Gregg Williams (CLE) | 2018 | 5-3 (62.5%) | 3-1 | 2-2 | 5-3 (62.5%) |
| Matt Patricia (DET) | 2018 | 7-13 (35.0%) | 3-7 | 4-6 | 10-10 (50.0%) |
| Frank Reich (IND) | 2018 | 14-8 (63.6%) | 7-3 | 7-5 | 13-8-1 (61.9%) |
| Mike Vrabel (TEN) | 2018 | 9-11 (45.0%) | 6-4 | 3-7 | 8-12 (40.0%) |
| Sean McDermott (BUF) | 2017 | 10-11 (47.6%) | 7-3 | 3-8 | 10-9-2 (52.6%) |
| Vance Joseph (DEN) | 2017 | 9-11 (45.0%) | 6-4 | 3-7 | 7-11-2 (38.8%) |
| Sean McVay (LAR) | 2017 | 13-8 (61.9%) | 5-6 | 8-2 | 11-10 (52.3%) |
| Kyle Shanahan (SF) | 2017 | 8-12 (40.0%) | 4-6 | 4-6 | 12-8 (60.0%) |
*2022 records prior to Week 1 games
Nowhere Near Perfect
Not including first-year head coaches from this season so far, only seven coaches out of the 29 listed won half or more than half of their games during their Sportsbook season with their respective teams.
So, if you’re expecting a new head coach to swoop in and save the organization like fans suggest, you’re sadly mistaken.
Browns fans 2016: Hue Jackson is the answer!
— 🐅 (@stripe_city) May 9, 2020
Browns fans 2018: Hue Jackson was the problem!
Browns fans 2019: Freddie Kitchens in the answer!
Browns fans 2019: Freddie Kitchens was the problem!
Browns fans 2020: We got Kevin Stefanski!!!
😂🧐
The truth is, it takes a season or two for coaches to usually settle in and if they don’t – well, they ruthlessly get canned and it’s on to the next one.
Eleven of the same 29 coaches listed left or were sacked within their first two seasons with the team after having won less than 50 percent of their schedule.
It’s not common for NFL squads to go undefeated in the regular season anyways, the last to do so being the New England Patriots (16-0) in 2007. So, if you’re planning on betting on the NFL this season, don’t rely on these shiny new coaches to secure you a victory.
There is some light at the end of the tunnel for those wagers, though. Nearly 62 percent of the above head coaches covered the spread in more than half of their matchups during their first season leading the team.
If you’re needing a solid answer, the best bet on the uncertain teams being led by the names we don’t necessarily trust yet is to take them ATS.
New Homes Take Some Time To Get Used To
Home-field advantage doesn’t seem to apply to first-year head coaches. Maybe nerves set in, and the home crowd adds some intimidation, but whatever it is, the data indicates road games have produced more success.
In their first year, 16 coaches had the same or better record during away games than contests held at their own stadium. Only half of those coaches, if they were promoted to a second season, improved those home records in the following year.
Want to place some more of your bets on NFL coaches? Check out our updated NFL Coach Of The Year and Odds To Be Next NFL Coach Fired to have some extra opportunity for profit.
