The first odds for the Week 2 matchup between the Colts and Redskins opened with Washington -4 before moving to -4.5 just a few minutes later. As Sunday evening played out and the betting public along with oddsmakers had time to digest the Colts’ Week 1 meltdown at home against the Bengals and Adrian Peterson’s rebirth during the Redskins’ convincing road win at Arizona, the spread grew and settled at Washington -5.5, Colts moneyline +160 and O/U 46 total.
VINTAGE A.P. WOWS IN REDSKINS DEBUT AGAINST CARDINALS
Arizona’s defense ranked third in yards allowed per rush last season at 3.5 per pop. While Peterson finished with only 3.7 YPR on Sunday afternoon, the 26 carries goes to show how many times the Cardinals front seven had to deal with the veteran running back. Plus, Arizona’s inability to sustain drives on offense left their defense on the field for more than 38 minutes Sunday afternoon. Because they were so gassed, it somewhat dilutes A.P.’s final stat line.
Fresh off those 26 carries for 96 yards and two receptions for 70 yards, Peterson faces a much weaker rush defense in Week 2. The Colts just allowed Joe Mixon to rush 17 times for 95 yards (5.6 yards per rush) and catch five balls for 54 more. A big reason why the Colts allowed the Bengals to score 24 unanswered points to end the game was because of Mixon. Indianapolis had no answers and will likely remain puzzled against Peterson in Week 2.
COLTS DEFENSE ITS ACHILLES HEEL (AGAIN)
Andrew Luck looked good, not great, in his first regular-season game since 2016. Dink and dunk pass-play calls or not, completing 39 of 53 passes for 319 yards and two touchdowns when you have little to no rushing threat is an impressive feat. These types of performances with more vertical passing by Luck will be needed throughout the season as the Colts defense remains one of the league’s worst.
Statistically, they finished in the middle of the pack in total yards allowed this past Sunday. However, Andy Dalton averaged 8.7 yards per attempt, sixth-highest in Week 1, and Cincinnati gained 5.1 yards per rush as a team, second-most in Week 1. Alex Smith can carve that secondary up.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: WASHINGTON PASSING
Alex Smith completed 21 of 30 passes for 255 yards against an above-average Cardinals secondary in Week 1. The game manager extraordinaire connected with seven different receivers, including speedy running back hybrid Chris Thompson who, like Mixon in Week 1, is poised to have a huge game against the Colts.
Since 1995, the Redskins are 30-22-1 ATS when their quarterback passes for 300 or more yards. If they want to keep Peterson upright through 16 games this season, they can’t ask him to carry the rock 20-plus times per game. So, look for Smith to pass as necessary against a Swiss-cheese secondary ripe for the picking.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: COLTS RUSHING GAME
Indy’s starting running back Marlon Mack may return for Week 2 after missing the Bengals game with a bad hamstring. The Colts finished with only 75 rushing yards in Week 1. They’re now 66-98 straight up and 59-104-1 against the spread when they rush for 90 or fewer yards in a game since 1995. Without Frank Gore, who is now on the Dolphins, and with Mack only averaging 3.8 yards per carry on 93 touches last season, 90 rush yards per game could prove to be a real challenge for the Colts this season.
Showers likely as hurricane Florence is expected to work its way up the East Coast. Temperature around 80 with humidity above 70 percent.
The Redskins have the home-field advantage, an advantage at quarterback because he didn’t miss all of 2017 with a shoulder injury, an advantage in the backfield, and an advantage on defense. However, with the Redskins line growing from -4 to -5.5 so quickly, I’m fading the temptation to lay the points. So, I’ll take the Washington moneyline and am extremely convinced the OVER 46 can hit as I believe Luck will be able to help the Colts score some points via the passing game and late in the second half.
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