Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the Indianapolis Colts. The Chargers will face the Colts and new starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in Los Angeles in their season opener as they seek their third straight home win against Indianapolis.

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers (Matchup Report)

Date/Time: September 8, 4:05 p.m. ET

TV Coverage: CBS

Sportsbook Odds: Los Angeles -3.5 | O/U 51.5 (Line History)

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement in Week 3 of the preseason rocked the lines on this game. The Chargers are now a 7-point favorite after Sportsbook at just -3.5, and the total has dropped to 44 points from its Sportsbook position of 51.5.

Indianapolis News & Notes

Coming off a 10-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS run to end the 2018 season, the Colts were favored to win the AFC South this season and to potentially do some damage as a Super Bowl contender. All of that changed when Andrew Luck announced his retirement just two weeks before the regular season was set to begin.

Jacoby Brissett takes over as the team’s starting quarterback. Brissett started all 16 games in 2017 when Luck missed the entire year due to injury and he led the Colts to a 5-11 SU and 8-8 ATS campaign. The 26-year-old is a capable backup, and it’s entirely possible that he has continued to work on his game and improved since 2017. But emulating Luck’s production in 2018 (4,593 passing yards and 39 passing touchdowns) just won’t be possible.

Los Angeles News & Notes

Had the Los Angeles Chargers played in any division in the AFC other than the West last season, their 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS record would have been enough to earn them a first-round bye. Instead, the Chargers had to settle for the fifth seed and a wild-card berth as the Kansas City Chiefs edged them out for the AFC West title on a divisional tiebreaker.

The Chargers still have the same problem of sharing a division with the Chiefs in 2019, but they also still have a roster capable of putting them in contention for a Super Bowl run. The biggest question mark coming into the year is the status of starting running back Melvin Gordon III, who has held out the entire preseason looking for a new contract and has threatened to continue to hold out in the regular season.

Betting Pick

This game has an UNDER written all over it. The Colts finished last season going 7-2 on the UNDER over their last nine games, and the Chargers went 8-4 on the UNDER over their last 12.

With Andrew Luck under center, the Colts would have been happy to get involved in a shootout with Philip Rivers and the Chargers. But with Brissett at the helm, Indianapolis must shift its game plan to slow things down; the total has gone UNDER in each of the Colts’ last eight games with Brissett as their starter.

Los Angeles will score its share of points, but in Week 1 the offense isn’t likely to be a well-oiled machine just yet. And on defense the Chargers should get the job done. Take the UNDER 44.