Bucs In A Pick’Em Game At Home Against Desperate Colts

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are known for big plays on offense … and offering little resistance on defense. With the defensive unit stepping up its game lately, the Bucs find themselves with a high total against a beat-up and struggling Indianapolis offense. Should bettors actually look at the UNDER on Sunday?

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Tampa Bay opened as a slight home favorite, with a 2-point spread attributable to the uncertain health of Indianapolis stars Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton and even quarterback Jacoby Brissett. While the Bucs have seen the OVER hit in nine of their last 10 games, their defense has played better of late and the Colts have a solid defense, so the Sportsbook total of 50.5 points seems a little bit high.

Indianapolis News & Notes

Indianapolis had a huge divisional matchup in Week 13, hosting Tennessee in a game from which the Sportsbook could potentially jump into a share of the AFC South division lead.

Jacoby Brissett threw for 319 yards and the Colts led 17-7 early in the third quarter but were outscored 24-0 the rest of the way as they got stomped 31-17.

There’s lots of places the Colts can look for reasons they lost, as they committed three turnovers and only ran for 82 yards in the game, but the biggest culprit was their kicking game. Adam Vinatieri had two field goals blocked — one was returned 63 yards for a Titans touchdown that completely changed the trajectory of the game — while missing another, giving the veteran 14 missed field goals this season, most in the NFL.

A run-first team, Indy now faces Tampa Bay’s second-ranked rushing defense. With starting running back Marlon Mack still sidelined with a broken hand, tight end Eric Ebron on IR and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton questionable with a calf injury, the Colts will have their work cut out for them to break their recent trend of going 6-20 SU in their last 26 games as an underdog.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

The roller-coaster that is the Buccaneers season may have hit its high point last week, as they jumped out to a 25-0 lead at Jacksonville and coasted to an easy 28-11 victory.

It was a backwards game for Tampa Bay: Jameis Winston had just his fourth game this season without throwing an interception, the Bucs offered a balanced offense with consistent rushing and their leading receivers were not Mike Evans and Chris Godwin … rather it was Breshad Perriman and O.J. Howard.

The biggest surprise was Tampa Bay’s defense, which forced four turnovers (leading to 22 points) and recorded five sacks. Despite still sitting 31st in the NFL in points allowed, Tampa Bay’s defense has given up just 33 points combined in the past two games.

Week 13 also marked the first time in 10 games that the Buccaneers played a game that went UNDER. Given how their defense is playing, along with facing a banged-up Colts offense, Tampa Bay may be looking at playing to the UNDER again in Week 14.

Betting Pick: UNDER 50.5

Tampa Bay has enough offense to do its part, but I don’t see the Colts having enough offense to match their hosts. Nor do I see the Bucs scoring enough on their own to hit 51 points, so I’ll take the UNDER.