The Kansas City Chiefs were 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS over their last 13 games before losing to the Las Vegas Raiders as 10.5-point home favorites last Sunday. The Chiefs will try to bounce back with a win on the road over the Bills on Monday night in Buffalo.
Opening Odds Analysis
Early action on this betting line came in on the Bills to drive the Chiefs down to 3-point favorites, but after Buffalo’s loss to Tennessee on Tuesday night, the line moved back up to its opener of Kansas City -3.5. Action on the total, however, has been much more consistent toward the OVER as the line now sits at 58 points after opening at 55.
Kansas City News & Notes
The Chiefs rolled out to a 21-10 lead early in the second quarter over the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday and appeared to be well on their way to another blowout victory. Instead, the Raiders fought back and strung together a 30-3 run to take a 40-24 lead in the fourth quarter, eventually holding on for a 40-32 upset over Kansas City. Sammy Watkins was injured in the loss and will be out on Monday against Buffalo.
Patrick Mahomes’ worst game of the season still included 340 passing yards, two touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown. But the Raiders defense got steady pressure on Mahomes to force him into taking three sacks, throwing an interception and completing only 51.2 percent of his throws.
The game could serve as an opportunity to refocus for the Chiefs, who routinely go through dry spells over the course of a 60-minute game but easily make up for it with their high-powered offense.
Buffalo News & Notes
Buffalo lost the turnover battle 3-0 in a 42-16 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Tuesday night. Josh Allen recorded season lows in completion percentage (63.4%) and passing yards (263) in the loss while also throwing two interceptions for the first time in his last 18 starts. Before Tuesday night’s loss, the Bills were averaging 30.8 points per game on offense.
The team’s offensive success over its 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS start helped mask the defensive deficiencies the Bills have had this season. Buffalo ranks 16th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 371.8 yards per game, and 21st in scoring defense, allowing 28.4 points per game. Last season, Buffalo ranked third league-wide in total defense, allowing only 281.8 yards per game, and second in scoring defense, allowing 16.2 points per game.
Betting Pick: Kansas City -3.5
A strong case could be made for the OVER in this matchup given how well these two offenses and quarterbacks have performed this season. But with Buffalo’s defense struggling and a Kansas City team with a chip on its shoulder rolling into town, the Chiefs look like the play in this one.
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