Following the news that Carson Wentz would miss the Eagles’ Week 15 game, the Rams saw their 9-point spread grow to -13.5. While Nick Foles played well for the Eagles, Los Angeles’ three turnovers and 2-for-6 effort in the red zone are two of the primary reasons why the Rams lost 30-23 Sunday night. Los Angeles is now 11-3 overall, but just 5-8-1 against the spread this season. The Rams are 1-5-1 ATS over their past seven games.
Arizona’s limp to the finish line continued as a Falcons offense averaging fewer than 20 points per game during their five-game losing streak erupted for 40 points and 215 rush yards against the Cardinals’ leaky defense. Arizona is now 3-11 overall and 6-7-1 against the spread.
The Rams opened as 13.5-point road favorites and remained that way as of Monday. Arizona’s moneyline is +680, while the point total is 47.5. Los Angeles beat the Cardinals 34-0 at the Coliseum back in Week 2.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Cardinals’ last nine games at home (avg. combined score: 32.33).
- The Cardinals are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs their division at home.
- The Rams are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games on the road.
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 15
Rams – A bad knee forced Todd Gurley from the game for one offensive series Sunday night. He returned and later scored, but his is definitely an injury that needs monitoring when trying to cover by two touchdowns.
Quarterback Jared Goff has thrown one touchdown and seven interceptions over his past three games.
The Rams defense has allowed 135.7 rush yards per game over the past three weeks. However, it’s up to the Cardinals to implement a David Johnson-led rush-first strategy to shrink the game as they did at Kansas City.
Los Angeles has now allowed 28.6 points per game over its past five.
Cardinals – Heading into Week 15, Atlanta had allowed more than 135 rush yards per game to the opposition. David Johnson and the Cardinals finished with 22 carries for 60 yards as the Falcons loaded up the box to force Josh Rosen to beat them. He did not beat them. After a 13-for-22 effort with no touchdown passes and two interceptions, the rookie quarterback was benched for Mike Glennon. The veteran journeyman completed 10 of 14 passes for 111 yards with a touchdown and no picks.
The Falcons recorded seven sacks of Rosen and Glennon and 12.5 tackles for a loss in Week 15. How is the Arizona offensive line going to stop Aaron Donald and the LA pass rush?
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: HEAVY ROAD FAVORITES DROP THE BALL
NFL teams favored by 13.5 or more points on the road this season are 2-0 straight up and 1-1 against the spread. However, if you increase the sample size, the Cardinals have a fighting chance to cover this Sunday. Since 2009, those heavy road favorites are just 3-9 ATS and since 2006 just 6-12 ATS. There’s a reason teams aren’t favored to win by two touchdowns on the road – few deserve the respect in a league of parity.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA FORECAST
The Big Toaster. Is it inside? Is it outside? It’ll be 70 degrees in Phoenix on Sunday, but it’s a dry, perfect temperature.
The Rams’ Greg Zuerlein was 3-for-3 on field goals and 2-for-2 on extra points on a night when the rest of his teammates were very much flawed. He’s made 23 of 27 field goals and 25 of 26 extra points this season. Arizona’s Zane Gonzalez made two extra points in the Cardinals’ loss to the Falcons. He’s not the most trustworthy leg.
MY LEAN
Arizona covered +16 at Kansas City, +13.5 at Green Bay and pushed +10 at Minnesota. The Cardinals also failed to cover +14 at the Chargers after jumping out to an early 10-0 lead and +9 when scoring first at the Falcons. They are a tough ATS nut to crack.
Now, they host a reeling Rams squad with a banged-up lead running back and a defense allowing 6.0 yards per play. Is it more likely that the Rams right the ship or the Cardinals? That depends on Gurley’s status on gameday. If he’s active, I believe the Rams can cover the 13.5, but I also think the point spread comes down a bit as bettors digest what happened against Philadelphia and the week plays out. This lean also assumes Rosen starts over Glennon.
My lean is Rams -13.5 if Gurley plays and Rosen starts. If not, I’ll take the Cardinals +13.5.
