Oakland’s Josh Jacobs is the Rookie of the Year favorite and a big reason why the Raiders are favorites over the visiting Chargers at some books. The Raiders improved to 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS with their 31-24 win over visiting Detroit.
The Chargers shocked the league in Week 9 by shutting down the potent Packers offense and winning 26-11. It was Los Angeles’ first home ATS win of the season. The Chargers improved to 4-5 SU and 3-5-1 ATS.
- Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders (Matchup Report)
- Date/Time: November 7, 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Coverage: FOX
- Sportsbook Odds: Oakland -1.5 | O/U 47.5 (Line History)
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Raiders opened as 1.5-point home favorites, but the line dipped to a pick’em at many outlets come Monday morning. The Chargers moneyline opened at +103 but has moved into minus money. The point total opened at 47.5. The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Chargers’ last eight games with an average combined score of 37.13.
Los Angeles is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games against Oakland with an average combined score of 34 points. With their win and cover over the Lions, the Raiders are now 3-1 ATS at home this season and 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. However, the Chargers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games against AFC West foes.
Los Angeles News and Notes
The ongoing joke is that every Chargers game appears to be the same event. It typically involves Philip Rivers needing to march his team down the field to get into field-goal range for a game-winning kick or Rivers on the sidelines watching the defense blow a lead late.
In Week 9, it was Aaron Rodgers, and not Rivers, who faced a 23-point fourth-quarter deficit. The Chargers defense was stellar last Sunday. Here are some of the most notable stats:
* Held the Packers to 11 points when they average 25
* Allowed the Packers to convert just two of 11 third downs
* Allowed just 3.8 yards per play when they averaged 6.2 over their prior three
A week after firing offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, the Chargers offense appeared more balanced in their win over Green Bay. Rivers completed 21 of 28 passes for 294 yards, while Melvin Gordon rushed 20 times for 80 yards and two scores after carrying the ball 32 times for 81 rush yards in his previous three games combined.
When you see that the Raiders allow the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game at 92.5 per contest, remember it’s because opposing offenses average the MOST pass yards per game (297.5) against the Raiders secondary. Watch for Rivers and receiver Mike Williams (three receptions for 111 yards vs Packers) to work the ball downfield, while Hunter Henry and Keenan Allen dominate the underneath routes.
Oakland News and Notes
It wasn’t that long ago that Josh Jacobs ranked fifth in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. He’s now the favorite, in minus money, because he’s carving up opposing front sevens. Jacobs has rushed for 120 or more yards in three of his past four games and ranks fourth in rush yards per game (92.5) and sixth in yards per carry (4.9) among running backs with 100 or more carries this season. Jacobs and the running game is where Oakland possesses a huge advantage over the Chargers’ 20th-ranked rush defense that allows 120 yards per game.
The Raiders actually rank second in yards per game over their past three contests at 437.5, but Oakland’s defense has allowed 447.3 YPG during the three-game stretch. It’s a great formula to finish 8-8. The Raiders are, however, converting 66.7 percent of their red-zone trips into touchdowns over their past three games, which is a far cry from a 53.5 percent red-zone conversion rate last season.
On the injury front, the Raiders lost right tackle Trent Brown to a knee injury and he’s now questionable for Thursday’s game against the Chargers.
Betting Pick: Raiders +1 / UNDER
Recent trends favor the Chargers to win and cover. However, Los Angeles is a lot like an ex-significant other. Just when we think they’ve “changed” for the better, they start exhibiting the same terrible habits that caused us to break things off in the first place. In a perfect world, this is a no-play ML/ATS, but the UNDER is enticing.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Chargers’ last 8 games (avg. combined score: 37.13).
- The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
- The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after consecutive ATS wins.
