One of the two remaining teams that still holds a perfect record resides in Los Angeles. Despite the Chiefs also being undefeated, the Rams have been much more dominant and have staked a claim in everyone’s mind as the top team in the NFL. They’ve won all four games by an average of 18.25 points, and it’s hard to find a hole in their team. Los Angeles currently tops the betting odds to win it all this year — at +333 on Sportsbook to lift the Lombardi Trophy when it’s all said and done.
The Rams’ opponent this week is the Seattle Seahawks. Just four years removed from being yards away from back-to-back Super Bowl titles, the squad led by Pete Carroll is a shell of its former self. They missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2011 and they haven’t looked much better this year, stumbling to a 2-2 SU record through the first four weeks. They currently sit as the 7-point underdog to the Rams ahead of their showdown in Seattle on Sunday. The total is set at 51.
- The Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road vs the Seahawks.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Rams’ last five games vs the Seahawks (avg. combined score: 30.8).
- The Seahawks are 44-10 SU in their last 54 games at home (avg. win margin of 14.75).
Seattle can make the Rams offense stutter, I’m on the UNDER
Divisional games are always a little more unpredictable than others. These teams see each other at least twice a year, so each coach knows exactly what to expect from the other side. While the Rams may seem like a tempting pick on the 7-point spread considering how dominant they’ve been this season, their history with the Seahawks makes me cautious. Therefore, I’m staying away from taking either team against the spread.
The better play, in my opinion, is to take the UNDER. In the last five meetings between these teams, the total has gone UNDER in four of them, with the average combined score across all five games being 30.8 points.
The Rams offense is clearly superior in all facets compared to what the Seahawks put on the field, but both teams are very competent on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams and the Seahawks rank among the top 10 in the league in yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. With the total being set at a pretty high mark of 51, hitting the OVER may prove to be a tough challenge.
The Rams offense is overachieving, expect them to falter
There’s no question that the Rams have one of the best offenses in the league right now, and that’s the only factor that makes the UNDER look questionable. Despite this, I fully expect them to stumble at some point, and this week looks like the perfect opportunity for that to happen.
They’re averaging 150 more yards per game than their 2017 offense, and five more points per game as well. Those are both very large leaps for a team to take in an offseason that didn’t see them add many weapons outside of Brandin Cooks, so don’t be surprised if you see their numbers even out as the year progresses. A Pete Carroll-led defense in Seattle may be the prime place for that to begin.
Seattle historically plays the Rams tough at home
The Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Seattle. While they were in St. Louis, the time change may have contributed to that number, but even now being in Los Angeles they still have to travel from the Southwest of the country up to the Northwest, and any significant travel can always cause some issues.
Playing at CenturyLink Field in Seattle has proven to be a challenge for any visiting team. It’s designed to trap and amplify noise (in case you haven’t heard the 15 times it’s brought up in every broadcast that takes place there), which makes it one of the loudest stadiums in the league. You can always count on the visiting offense to go offside or miss an audible a few times each game, which can be a momentum changer. These factors make the UNDER the smartest play on the board.
