Bills Put Perfect UNDER Season on the Line

The Miami Dolphins are still winless, and now they travel into hostile territory to face the surprising Buffalo Bills on the road. They’re underdogs by more than two touchdowns, but does Buffalo have enough offense to actually cover the spread?

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Bills are 4-1 and have a dominant defense, while the Dolphins are among the worst teams in the history of the NFL. It’s no surprise the spread opened at 15.5 points, with bettors supporting Buffalo early, as the line is now 16.5. The total opened at 40.5, due to Buffalo’s offense not being as reliable as its defense, and early action has seen the total shift a point and a half, now sitting at 39.

Miami News & Notes

As embarrassing as Miami’s season has been, Week 6 may have represented rock bottom.

At home against an also-winless Washington squad, which was bottom five in points, yards and points against, quarterback Josh Rosen was bad.

He threw for just 85 yards and two interceptions, while getting sacked five times. His total QBR of 2.1 on the day was the second-worst QBR game of the season, before he was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick entering the fourth quarter.

“FitzMagic” nearly took over, as he rallied the Dolphins back from a 17-3 fourth-quarter deficit to make it 17-16 with six seconds left. Miami went for two but Kenyan Drake dropped a pass as the comeback bid fell short.

The Dolphins are still on pace to be the lowest-scoring team ever in a 16-game season. They have only held a lead for 3:49 the entire season and will be hard pressed against Buffalo’s defense to break their streak of going 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.

Buffalo News & Notes

Coming out of their bye week, the Buffalo Bills have a lot to be happy about: they’re sitting in a playoff position with a 4-1 record, their defense has allowed the third-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points in the NFL, and they have a lot of winnable games still remaining on the schedule.

What they do need to work on, however, is eliminating the negative plays from their offense. The Bills currently have a -3 turnover difference, one of two teams above .500 with a negative differential. They have the fifth-most turnovers in the NFL, in part due to the sloppy play of quarterback Josh Allen.

Allen is tied for third in the league with seven interceptions, while adding two lost fumbles. The Bills defense is elite, but it will be hard for them to keep Buffalo in games when the offense keeps putting the defense in difficult situations.

This week should be a good one for Allen and the offense to get right, as Miami has forced just two turnovers all season, and Buffalo should be in great shape to build upon the trend of going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite.

One of the biggest betting storylines heading into this week is the Bills perfect UNDER record (5-0 so far). With these teams owning a combined 9-1 UNDER record this season, are we in store for another snoozer?

Betting Pick: Bills -16.5

The Dolphins’ only cover this season was last week against Washington. When they face a real NFL team, they get blown out. Give me Bills to cover big.