Fresh off an improbable last-second 34-33 victory over the New England Patriots, the 7-6 SU Miami Dolphins are riding a high entering a Week 15 road contest with the Minnesota Vikings that has massive playoff implications. Sportsbooks opened the Vikes as 7-point home favorites with a total of 44.
- The Dolphins are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Vikings (avg. winning margin: 3.33).
- The Vikings are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings’ last 10 games at home (avg. combined score: 39.9).
Dolphins vs Vikings Game Center
Dolphins are in tough to replicate last week’s wild ending
The Dolphins’ series of laterals that led to a 69-yard touchdown from Kenyan Drake with time expired will likely go down as the craziest play of the NFL season. The win was Miami’s second in a row, and the Fins now sit tied with the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans in the thick of the AFC wild-card race.
Miami gave up 421 total yards and allowed the Patriots to go 9-for-16 on third downs in yet another game where the defense failed to step up to the plate. The Dolphins defense ranks 26th in the NFL at 25.6 points allowed per game and is 29th with 401.1 yards allowed per game. Miami has been poor on the road, going 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in its past 11 away from home. The Dolphins are also 5-12 SU in their past 17 on the road after winning consecutive home games.
Cousins simply hasn’t been able to beat good teams
The Vikings went into Seattle and weren’t able to stop Russell Wilson and company, as Minnesota fell to the Seahawks 21-7 in Monday Night Football while failing to cover as 3-point underdogs. The offense simply hasn’t been right all season long, and while Kirk Cousins’ numbers look good on paper, he hasn’t lived up to the lucrative contract he signed with the club in the offseason. In light of the setback to the Seahawks, Cousins is now 4-24 SU against winning teams in his NFL career.
Minnesota has been a completely different team at home compared to on the road when it comes to covering the spread. The Vikings are 10-2 SU in their past 12 at U.S. Bank Stadium and have gone 31-12-1 ATS in their past 44 home contests. The UNDER has been cashing in that span, evidenced by Minny going below the closing total in eight of its last 10 in the Gopher State with an average combined score of 39.9 points.
My pick: take the UNDER
The Vikings have been inconsistent both on the field and at the betting window in 2018, and I’m not sure how I feel about laying a touchdown at home against a Dolphins team coming off a huge win over their division rivals. Instead, I’m going to stay away from the spread and back the UNDER here.
The Fins have struggled to put up points away from Miami, and the Vikings defense has looked like its dominant self over the past few months. Taking the UNDER is basically fading this struggling Vikings offense, and that’s something I’m more than OK with after last week’s debacle against the Seahawks.
