The defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers will be looking to rebound from a poor performance in prime time as they host the Miami Dolphins as huge home favorites on Sunday. The 49ers are coming off a 25-20 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles as 8.5-point home favorites on Sunday Night Football, and they are comparable chalk in this spot.
- Date/Time: October 11, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
- TV Coverage: Fox
- Sportsbook Odds: 49ers -13 | O/U 46.5 (Line History)
- Dolphins vs 49ers Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
This line has already plunged down to San Francisco -8 at some sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark, as the team may opt to start third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard with Jimmy Garoppolo possibly still out due to an ankle injury and Nick Mullens committing three turnovers against Philadelphia. Even though Mullens played great against the New York Giants, bettors seem to be fading the 49ers early on because of this uncertainty.
Miami News & Notes
The Dolphins certainly had their moments in a 31-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday but ultimately could not overtake a superior opponent or find a way to cover the spread as 4.5-point home underdogs. Miami simply settled for too many field goals and would have at least beaten the number if one of those had turned out to be a touchdown and extra point instead.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick tried to rally the team once again and finally scored a touchdown on a 10-yard run in the final two minutes, but that came with Miami trailing 31-15 and following two interceptions.
The Dolphins trailed 17-15 midway through the fourth quarter, and head coach Brian Flores has already started to answer questions about whether rookie Tua Tagovailoa is ready to go. Flores insists that he will not rush Tagovailoa into action, but Fitzpatrick’s play is the key.
San Francisco News & Notes
San Francisco just served up a win to a bad team at home, so could it happen again here? It would appear unlikely, but injuries are starting to take an even bigger toll on the 49ers, who may have now lost defensive end Ziggy Ansah for the season with a torn biceps. They are already without defensive ends Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas with knee injuries, not to mention Garoppolo.
While head coach Kyle Shanahan has done a solid job developing quarterbacks through his career, Mullens and Beathard are clearly a big step below a healthy Garoppolo. That said, Shanahan would be wise to lean more on the running game, especially lead back Jerick McKinnon, who is one of their few healthy weapons on the offensive side of the ball.
The return of tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel should help as well, as they combined for 218 yards on 18 catches in the loss to the Eagles. However, Kittle had 15 of those catches for 183 yards.
Betting Pick: UNDER 47
San Francisco would indeed be wise to run the ball more and take pressure off whoever is playing quarterback, while also relying on their defense. Whenever Miami’s Fitzpatrick is mentioned, the tendency is to think about betting the OVER because he scores a lot and turns the ball over a lot. But that was not the case last week vs Seattle, with the team kicking five field goals and scoring only one touchdown. The 49ers will hold Fitzpatrick in check too in another lower-scoring affair that finishes UNDER.
- The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami’s last 5 West Coast games.
- The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins are 1-7-1 ATS in their past 9 games vs the 49ers.
