New offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski did something that departed OC John DeFilippo refused to do for the first 13 games of the year – he put the game in Dalvin Cook’s hands against Miami and got rewarded.
The sophomore from Florida State had 163 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns to lead the Vikings over the Dolphins. Cook’s previous season high was 109 scrimmage yards in the first meeting with Detroit and as fate would have it, the Lions host the Vikings with Minnesota Sportsbook as a 5.5-point favorite this week.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings’ last 10 games vs the Lions (avg. combined score: 34.0).
- The Vikings are 7-1-1 SU in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
- The Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.
Change of Strategy for Vikings
Minnesota ran the ball 40 times vs Miami while attempting just 21 passes. That represents the first time this season that the Vikings had more than a +2 differential in run vs pass plays. In fact, going into Week 15, the Vikes were passing the ball on 66 percent of their offensive plays.
This change represents a massive shift in the strategy and takes the pressure off a career 94.8-rated Kirk Cousins and allows the passes he does make to be more impactful.
What Does the New Approach Mean for This Week?
Detroit is in the middle of the pack when it comes to rush defense, allowing an average of 115.4 yards per game on the ground, but they’ve been over that mark in two of their last three games with 149 yards surrendered to the Rams and 117 to the Bills.
The threat of the run should open up things for Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen to make some key plays. Even though he was limited to 21 attempts vs Miami, Cousins had 215 yards in the air plus two passing touchdowns. Stefanski is also the quarterbacks coach, so he won’t be forgetting about his guy.
Lions Have Nothing to Play For
After starting the season 3-3, Detroit has gone 2-6 straight up and straight out of the playoffs for the 16th time in 19 years. In the first meeting between these teams, seven weeks ago, the Vikings set a franchise record by sacking Matthew Stafford 10 times, including multiple times while in the red zone.
Minnesota’s defense has 47 sacks this season to lead the NFL. Stafford has been sacked 37 times, which likely has helped lead to a back injury he’s dealing with. He has played through it for two weeks, but if he is on the way to another 10 sacks this week, we may not see him finish the game.
My Best Bet For Sunday
I really like the Vikings -5.5 in this game. Granted, the performance last week was against Miami and at home, but there’s no reason to believe that it wasn’t mostly due to the dramatic shift in game planning.
It almost makes too much sense that if you give the ball to Dalvin Cook more frequently, it will open up the deep threat, but sometimes all that’s needed is a new approach.
With Minnesota fighting for playoff positioning and Detroit playing out the string, I think the Vikings prevail and cover the spread.
