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Bills, Patriots Battle for AFC East Lead in MNF Matchup

The New England Patriots (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) will try to extend their winning streak to seven games on Monday when they visit the Buffalo Bills (7-4, 6-4-1) as small road underdogs to close out Week 13. The surprising Patriots face the Bills twice within a 21-day period, and their head-to-head matchups could decide the division title, which was won by the latter last year after the former took home the previous 11.


New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
  • Date/Time: December 6, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Highmark Stadium
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: Bills -3.5 | O/U 46 (Line History)
  • Patriots vs Bills Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

This hot New England team definitely has the attention of bettors right now to the point that they have moved the line down to -2.5 in favor of Buffalo. The total dropping to 43.5 also shows a lot of respect for the Patriots, who continue to be a defensive force under future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick.

While Belichick could be in line for his first NFL Coach of the Year award in more than a decade, he still needs to navigate through a difficult end of the schedule that includes the two games against the Bills along with road trips to Indianapolis and Miami. That said, Buffalo’s stock is also fairly low, with the team looking to win consecutive games for the first time since October 10 at Kansas City.

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New England News & Notes

New England dropped both meetings a year ago, but that was obviously a much different team. Some key defensive players like linebacker Dont’a Hightower sat out last season due to COVID-19, and the Patriots struggled offensively as well because they lacked a consistent signal-caller to lead the charge.

Drafting quarterback Mac Jones out of a championship-caliber college program like Alabama was exactly what Belichick needed, and the rookie has exceeded expectations in almost every way so far.

Replacing a legend like Tom Brady was unfathomable for Belichick, and seeing him win the Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had to be painful. But Jones is writing his own success story, and bettors have finally been buying in thanks in part to the current winning streak.

Buffalo News & Notes

The Bills are a team that has become somewhat forgotten in the AFC with the rise of their opponent, and the only thing that can change that perception is themselves.

It did not take the Kansas City Chiefs long to prove their doubters wrong and jump ahead in the AFC West race, and a victory here can go a long way to making the naysayers take the defending AFC East champions seriously again too.

It all starts with MVP candidate Josh Allen, who looked bad and then great against the New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving night, throwing a couple of bad interceptions and then rebounding with four touchdown passes. This is Allen’s opportunity to shine and take the spotlight away from Jones.

How New England Will Cover

The biggest thing New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been able to do with Jones is not put too much pressure on him. The running game has been solid and the defense has been great. If that continues, the Patriots will not only cover but win.

How Buffalo Will Cover

Again, this is Allen’s perfect opportunity to remind everyone how good he is and how good his team is in prime time. All eyes will be on him and his teammates this Monday in the biggest game of Week 13. If he comes to play and limits his mistakes, Buffalo can cover.

Computer Pick: Patriots +2.5

  • Best Spread
    -115
    +105
    NE+3
    -3BUF
    BOVADA MyBookie
  • Best Moneyline
    +130
    -145
    NE
    BUF
    Intertops BOVADA
  • Best Total
    -105
    -105
    Over40
    40Under
    BOVADA BOVADA

For more Week 13 predictions, visit our NFL Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • New England is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 prime-time games.
  • Buffalo is 15-6-1 ATS in its last 22 games.
  • The OVER is 3-0 in the past 3 meetings.