When it comes to home-field advantage in the NFL, it doesn’t get much more important than when the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins collide. With the AFC East rivals set to renew acquaintances in Week 14 on Sunday, the Dolphins will look to continue a trend that’s seen the home team go 11-1 SU and ATS in the last 12 matchups between the clubs. Sportsbooks opened the Fish as 8-point home underdogs with a total of 47.
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Dolphins’ last 18 games at home (avg. combined score: 46.39).
- The Patriots are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Dolphins.
- The Patriots are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games vs divisional opponents.
Patriots vs Dolphins Game Center
Patriots have been money since their bye week
The Patriots were embarrassed by the Tennessee Titans in Week 10, as Tom Brady and company got smoked by a score of 34-10. After going on the bye, the Pats have bounced back to win their next two games in impressive fashion over the Minnesota Vikings and New York Jets.
In the last meeting between the Patriots and Dolphins in Week 4 at Gillette Stadium, the Pats limited Miami to 172 total yards in a 38-7 blowout win. Brady went 23-for-35 for 274 passing yards and three touchdowns with two picks in the game.
Just how good have the Patriots been against divisional opponents of late? In its past 13 vs the AFC East, New England is 12-1 SU. The Patriots are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing in the early afternoon slate of action on Sundays.
Howard has been excellent for the Dolphins
The Dolphins were able to keep their playoff hopes alive by topping the Buffalo Bills at home in Week 13 to improve to 6-6 on the season. In his second game back from an extended injury absence, quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw for 137 yards and three touchdowns with an interception in the victory.
If Miami is going to slow down the suddenly surging Patriots, its defense is going to have to step up, and Xavien Howard could be the guy leading the way. Howard was fantastic against the Bills, recording two defensive touchdowns to go along with four total tackles and a pair of passes defended.
Miami has been a great bet against the spread at home vs squads with winning records lately, going 10-4 ATS in its past 14 at Hard Rock Stadium against clubs with records over .500.
My pick: take the Dolphins
While it’s no secret New England is the better team, these teams’ penchant for failing to produce on the road in this series is simply too hard to ignore. It’s hard to believe visiting teams are a brutal 1-11 SU and ATS in this matchup considering how much success the Patriots have had over the years, yet the Dolphins always seem to play Bill Belichick and company tough at home.
Winning straight up will be a tall order, but I expect Miami to keep this one close and cover the spread in Florida.
