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Garoppolo and Underdog Patriots Look to Upset the Cards

*Update - On Friday night it was announced that Patriots' TE Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) will not play, which moved the line from -6 to -7.

Two Super Bowl contenders will battle it out in the most anticipated Sunday night game since, well, the Super Bowl, when the Cardinals welcome the new-look Patriots to the desert. The game originally opened as a pick’em, but that was before Tom Brady was suspended, so the Patriots now find themselves hovering around the +6 mark.

Shark Bites
  • The Patriots are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Cardinals.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Patriots' last 7 games as underdog.
  • Carson Palmer is 0-4 SU in his career vs New England.

There will still be a handsome man playing quarterback for New England, but it’s not the one with four Super Bowl rings and 428 career touchdown passes, it’s the one with 188 career passing yards — Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s worth considering that the Pats and Garoppolo have had months to prepare for this game, so it’s a bit different than an injury fill-in situation in the middle of a season.

It’s rare that Bill Belichick and company find themselves as underdogs, as the Patriots have been dogs just seven times over the past two seasons, but they’ve gone a very impressive 6-1 SU and ATS in those games.

If you’re all-in on the Cardinals based on Jimmy Garoppolo taking over QB duties for New England, you need to consider that the Cards were a lousy spread bet at home last season, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. They were the favorite in each of the nine home games they played last season which includes a playoff game, and despite being the outright winner in seven of those games, they were only able to cover the spread three times.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The point spread was settled in at 1 for the host Arizona Cardinals earlier in the week, according to Bovada. The over under betting line was hovering around 51, with odds movement expected during the week at MyBookie.

Odds Shark computer score prediction models pick a possible 27-15 win for the Cardinals on Sunday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Arizona Cardinals sport a record of 14-4 and 9-9 ATS heading into this betting matchup, while the New England Patriots sit at 13-5 and 8-7-3 ATS on the season. The over under totals records are 10-8 for the Cardinals and 10-8 for the Patriots. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Arizona vs New England injuries news.

The game pits the Arizona Cardinals, currently No. 5 in our Odds Shark NFL Power Rankings, against the New England Patriots, who rate No. 7 in the latest survey.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Arizona Cardinals No. 2-ranked offense (29.44 PPG) against a New England Patriots defense that ranks No. 8 at 19.72 PPG. The Cardinals passing attack has averaged 287.28 yards per game, more than the Patriots give up through the air (235.56 YPG on average).

Defensively, the New England Patriots feature the league's No. 19-rated road run defense, allowing 118.22 yards per game. The Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, ranks No. 23 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last game, New England's aerial attack generated 310 yards but it was the Broncos coming away with a 20-18 victory over New England at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

Arizona didn't make much of a game of it last time out, losing to the Panthers as Carolina blasted them 49-15 in Conference Playoff action.

Betting Trends
  • New England is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
  • New England is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
  • New England is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • New England is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
  • Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Arizona is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games
  • Arizona is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

New England home to Miami, Sunday, September 18th
Arizona home to Tampa Bay, Sunday, September 18th