In what’s expected to be a matchup of an elite offense vs an elite defense, the New England Patriots head to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears for Week 7. The Patriots are coming off an extraordinary last-minute victory over the Chiefs in Week 6 while the Bears got overheated and blew it in overtime vs the Dolphins. The Pats opened as 3-point favorites but have dropped both of their road games this season while the Bears are undefeated at home. Oddsmakers are also expecting a lot of offense as the total opened at 49.5.
- The Patriots are 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS in their last 20 road games.
- The Bears are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.
- The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Patriots’ last 6 games on the road.
Road Efforts This Season Make Patriots Look Vulnerable
After New England dropped 43 points on the Chiefs, many pundits who were quick to write off the Patriots after a 2-2 SU start may be eating their words going into Week 7. The Pats offense has resembled the unit from their last three Super Bowl runs with Julian Edelman back in the fold as Tom Brady has topped 300 yards passing in back-to-back weeks to go with four touchdowns and two interceptions. The reason why the yardage is significant is that from Week 1 to Week 4, Brady’s highest mark was 277 passing yards back in Week 1. After six weeks of play, New England is also the least penalized team in the NFL with only 26 flags totaling 206 yards – the Pats don’t beat themselves.
And while it’s easy to laud the Patriots offense with the additions of Edelman and Josh Gordon, their two road games this season give me pause. The Jaguars (along with just about any team over the last 15 years that has defeated the Patriots) showed the NFL in Week 2 the blueprint for beating Tom Brady and the Pats and that’s a dominant defensive line that hits him often in the pocket. The Jags and Lions both executed that plan to a T and Brady couldn’t initiate the offense.
However, I think those issues on the offensive side of the ball are all but rectified and the Pats can burn the Bears through the air. Chicago ranks 16th in passing yards allowed (260) and a steady diet of Gronk and Edelman should put the Patriots in a great position to improve their 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS record in their last 20 road games.
Defensively, the Patriots are still a bit of a train wreck as they rank in the bottom half of the NFL in both passing yards and rushing yards allowed per game while giving up 24.7 points per game. Because of those defensive liabilities, in combination with Chicago’s tremendous pass rush, I’m uneasy about taking the Pats as a spread pick in this one.
Recent Trends Favor the Bears to Cover
There haven’t been a lot of stats and trends to support a Bears moneyline wager over the last two seasons as they’ve finished 10-22 SU in their last 32 games, but as a spread bet they’ve been kind to bettors. In that same span, the Bears went 19-12-1 ATS, which is incredible since they were only favored in seven of those games.
Not enough words can be written about how Khalil Mack’s presence has turned the Bears defense into a juggernaut. With five sacks, four forced fumbles and a pick-six, he is in the driver’s seat to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year and has spearheaded Chicago’s efforts to become a top-five defensive team in the league. The Bears may be vulnerable against the pass, but against the run they rank fourth in yards allowed per game and are the only team in the league yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. They’ll need that effort to show up again vs the Patriots’ Sony Michel, who has five rushing touchdowns and is averaging 105 yards per game over his last three.
The Bears have been lights-out offensively in their two games at Soldier Field with Mitch Trubisky throwing for eight touchdowns and two interceptions, while the defense limited the Seahawks and Bucs to less than 20 points. As a home underdog, the Bears are covering spreads at an alarming rate as Chicago is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games at Soldier Field as a pup.
Is the UNDER in Play?
The total opened at 49.5 and while I see a lot of trends pointing to an OVER, I’m expecting an UNDER in this game. Chicago’s defense plays much better at home and the UNDER has hit in seven of its last 10 in the Windy City with an average combined score of 35.8 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in four of the Patriots’ last five games on the road with an average combined score of 42.2.
My Pick Is…
To take the Bears to cover the spread. I think Chicago’s rush defense will neutralize the threat of Sony Michel and will get to Brady and sack him at least three times. The Patriots defense is still allowing a lot of points which means that Trubisky should be able to score on them.
