It’s been a bit of a dream season for the Miami Dolphins and their backers as the Fins clinched a playoff spot in Week 16 and they’ve been rewarding their backers since mid-October, going 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The surge at the betting window has brought Miami’s record to 9-5-1 ATS, which still isn’t close to contending with the Patriots, who’ve been the best bet in the NFL this season at 12-3 ATS. The two teams will close out the regular season in Miami, where the Dolphins have won five straight.
- The total has gone OVER in the Dolphins' last five games as an underdog.
- The Patriots are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games against the Dolphins.
- Tom Brady has 15 TDs and 0 INTs on the road this season.
Both teams have a number of positive trends working in their favor as the Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home against teams with winning records, but the Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Head-to-head matchups in Miami tell a different story, though, as the Dolphins are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three home games vs New England. Miami is also on a run of four straight wins and covers as a home underdog.
After originally Sportsbook in the 6-point range, the spread jumped to 9.5 points at the mid-week mark. Ironically enough, Miami has been a home underdog of nine or more just three times since 2004 and each of those games came vs New England. Miami went 2-1 SU and ATS in those games. New England has been a road favorite of nine or more three times already this season and has gone 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
The total for the game opened at 44.5 points and the OVER has been a hot bet in Dolphins games this season as they’ve topped the number in 11 of their 15 games.
Sportsbook Odds & Computer Pick
Odds at sportsbooks such as Sportsbook had the Miami Dolphins pegged as 6-point underdogs in this betting matchup. The total, meanwhile, was listed by books like Sportsbook at 44.5.
NFL prediction models run by the computers at Odds Shark picked a 24-20 result in favor of the Patriots earlier in the week. Watch matchup reports and the picks page for any changes, due to injuries or suspensions this week. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Matchup
Team Betting Records & Power Rankings
Miami bring a 10-5 record (9-5-1 ATS) to the Week 17 betting matchup against the 13-2 New England Patriots, who are 12-3 ATS against the spread. Over under betting has seen Miami go 11-4 so far and the Patriots go 5-9-1. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Miami vs New England injuries news.
The Miami Dolphins sit at No. 14 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at Odds Shark, while the New England Patriots are at No. 1 on that chart.
Statistical Matchup
The game also pits Miami's No. 16-ranked offense, averaging 23.27 PPG, against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 1 this week at 15.73 PPG. The Dolphins aerial game is averaging 220.33 yards per game, less than the Patriots secondary allows through the air, 240.2 YPG per game.
Defensively, the New England Patriots feature the league's No. 3-rated road run defense, allowing 89.14 yards per game. The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, ranks No. 5 in rushing offense at home.
Recent Outings Betting Recap
Tom Brady dusted the Jets secondary for 3 TDs last time out as the Patriots defeated New York 41-3 at Gillette Stadium.
Last time we saw the Bills, they had no answer for Jay Ajayi as the Dolphins rolled to a 34-31 victory at New Era Field.
- New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
- New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
- Miami is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games
- Miami is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
- Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next Betting Matchups
New England home to , Wednesday, December 31st
Miami home to , Wednesday, December 31st
