Saints’ Banged-Up O-Line Could Pose Problem Against Falcons

Thanks to Carolina’s two missed extra points and field goal, the Saints escaped with a last-second 34-31 victory to improve to 9-2 overall, but fell to 7-4 ATS after failing to cover -10.

After back-to-back wins provided Atlanta’s fans some false sense of improvement, the Buccaneers served up a slice of 35-22 humble pie. With the loss, the Falcons (-3.5) fell to 3-8 straight up and 4-7 against the spread.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

New Orleans opened as a 5.5-point road favorite at Sportsbook, but the spread has swelled to New Orleans -7. The Falcons moneyline opened at +256 and the point total at 48.5 before a jump up to 50. The total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints’ last six night games.

The Falcons (+14) upset the Saints 26-9 back in Week 10 in New Orleans.

This will mark only the third time since the 2013 season that New Orleans has been a road favorite of 7 or more points. The Saints finished 1-1 SU and ATS in two games in that situation last season but are 3-7 ATS over their past 10.

Atlanta has been a home dog of 7 or more points only once over the past four seasons. The Falcons covered +7.5 in a 27-20 loss to Seattle earlier this year. 

BONUS BITE: The UNDER has hit in four straight games when Atlanta is a home dog of 7 or more points and in three straight games when New Orleans is a road favorite of 7 or more points.

New Orleans News & Notes

We typically don’t lead with offensive line injury updates. However, after the Saints allowed 12 sacks through the first eight games, Drew Brees was hit 11 times and sacked six times by the Falcons pass rush in Week 10’s loss. So, this isn’t the best time for the New Orleans O-line to receive more bad news. Left tackle Terron Armstead is out Thursday with a high ankle sprain, while the team is already missing lineman Andrus Peat, who broke his arm. 

Some good news is that cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) has a shot to play, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. He would get the Julio Jones assignment.

Since returning from a thumb injury, Drew Brees has completed 76.5 percent of his passes and averaged 299.8 passing yards per game with nine touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Saints are 3-1 since his return and have scored 31 or more points in three of the four games.

Bonus Bite: According to the Associated Press Falcons-Saints Week 10 game recap, New Orleans committed 12 penalties with six producing Falcons first downs and four extending drives on third or fourth down. That’s a recipe for disaster. It’s also unlikely to happen again.

Atlanta News & Notes

UPDATE 11/28/19

Julio Jones will NOT play tonight vs New Orleans.

Inactives https://t.co/x8AsBisrcy pic.twitter.com/8v6OOP9eHt

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 28, 2019

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Tied for the team lead with six touchdowns, tight end Austin Hooper is expected to miss another week due to a knee injury. Running back Devonta Freeman also missed the Buccaneers game, was limited in Monday’s practice and is questionable for Thanksgiving night.

After winning back-to-back games and outscoring the Saints and Panthers 55-12 in the process, the Falcons defense got exposed by a Tampa Bay squad that won for just the second time in its last seven games. The Buccaneers averaged 7.2 yards per play and converted three of their four red-zone trips. Tampa only scored three points on its final five possessions and still won by 13.

With the quick turnaround, Saints head coach Sean Payton is digging into this tape and looking for ways to exploit these weaknesses again Thursday night.

Betting Pick: Lean OVER 50

UPDATE 11/28/19

Jones' late INACTIVE status makes this a no play for me, but if you twisted my arm, I would take Saints -6.5 if I could find it.

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Despite history’s strong suggestion to hammer the OVER, I don’t have a great feel for this NFC South clash. Injuries on both rosters make me second-guess / overthink a little, but 30-22 Saints or something in that realm is feasible.