We’re about to enter Week 7 and the Baltimore Ravens defense has not allowed a second-half touchdown this season. The same defense just set a single-game franchise record with 11 sacks of poor Marcus Mariota. With the 21-0 shutout win over the Titans, the Ravens improved to 4-2 straight up and against the spread.
Their Week 7 opponent, New Orleans, is coming off its bye. The Saints are 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games after the bye, but just 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS when playing on the road after the bye. Baltimore opened as a 2-point home favorite, but that has grown to BAL -2.5 as bettors believe the Ravens defense can slow the Saints. New Orleans’ moneyline is +114 and the point total is 50.
- The Saints are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs the Ravens.
- The Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games at home after consecutive road games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Saints’ last eight games (avg. combined score: 60.63).
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 7
Saints – When we last saw the Saints, Drew Brees was busy trumping Peyton Manning’s all-time passing yards record. New Orleans beat up the Redskins 43-19 and for as consistent as the offense has been, it’s the defense that has started to right the ship the last two times out. After allowing 34 points per game the first three weeks, the Saints have held their past two opponents under 20. Starting safety Marshon Lattimore, last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, is still in concussion protocol.
Playing in his first game of the season, Mark Ingram picked up right where he left off. He finished with 53 rush yards and two touchdowns against the Redskins. Ingram and Alvin Kamara face their toughest test to date. Baltimore has allowed fewer than 83 rush yards per game and two rushing touchdowns in six contests.
Ravens – If you ignore Baltimore’s loss to the Bengals in which Cincinnati scored 34 points, the Ravens defense has allowed only 8.6 points per game in the other five.
The Ravens rush offense may rank 21st at less than 100 yards per contest, but their eight rushing touchdowns are tied for third-most in the NFL. On the flip side, Joe Flacco’s 294 pass yards per game rank inside the top 10, but his nine passing touchdowns are tied for fifth-fewest. In other words, the once red-hot Ravens offense that averaged 30.8 points per game the first month of the season is regressing to the mean. No matter, the Ravens defense is the straw that stirs the drink.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS – FLAWLESS BREES
Drew Brees is the only starting quarterback without an interception this season. Since Brees joined the Saints, New Orleans is 73-20 straight up and 68-25 against the spread when Brees does not throw an interception. For as dominant as it appears, Baltimore’s defense only has five interceptions in six games.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS – 300-YARD FLUB
It’ll be fascinating to watch Brees and his 332 pass yards per game average square up against a Ravens pass defense allowing 188 pass yards per contest. However, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has faced below-average quarterbacks in four of its six games to date.
Over the past three seasons, even if Baltimore forces one or more turnovers, the Ravens are 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS when an opposing quarterback passes for 300 or more yards.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND FORECAST
Partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 50s, low humidity and winds 10-20 mph.
As expected, Saints kicker Wil Lutz has stayed busy on game days. He’s 11-for-12 on field goals, but hasn’t missed since Week 2 and is 15-for-16 on extra points. After attempting 11 the previous three games, Justin Tucker didn’t attempt a field goal at Tennessee. So, he remains 12-for-14 on the season.
MY PICK
It’s another trap, right? New Orleans is all rested coming out of its bye, while the Ravens defense is due for some regression. Instead of toying with the spread, take a long look at the OVER. These teams can score in bunches and I don’t think the Saints defense is to a point where it’s going to hold Joe Flacco and company under 28 points this weekend. I’ll take the OVER 50.
