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Bills need a bounce-back win at home vs surging Saints

Well, Week 9 didn’t go as planned for the Buffalo Bills. After going 5-2 SU in their first seven games, the Bills dropped a clunker on Thursday Night Football to the New York Jets and now have a tough road ahead if they plan to sniff the playoffs for the first time since 1999. The good news is they technically are still one of the AFC wild-card teams if the playoffs started today. The bad news is they welcome the New Orleans Saints, who have won six straight and are 6-2 SU this season.

  • The Saints are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Bills.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of Buffalo’s last 20 games.
  • The Bills are 4-1 SU in their last five games in the 1 p.m. ET slot.

Despite that horrible loss to the Jets, the Bills have been dominant at home this season, going 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS and with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. Buffalo’s game plan of controlling the ground game and minimizing turnovers is why they’re in the playoff hunt. If they plan to defeat New Orleans, Bills running back LeSean McCoy will need to have a bounce-back performance in Week 10 against a Saints team allowing 116 yards per game on the ground this season. Buffalo opened as a 2-point dog against New Orleans.

Speaking of the Saints, they’re hoping to pad their lead in the NFC South when they go for their seventh victory this season at New Era Field. In years past, the Saints were a horrible road team and routinely submarined their seasons with shoddy defense and terrible play away from the Superdome. Now, they’re ninth in points allowed (19.38) and are getting it done away from the Bayou with a record of 3-1 SU and ATS. Bettors should eat the points with the Saints this week and ride this wave of road competency.

The total opened at 46 and placing a wager on the OVER could pay off. The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Bills’ last 12 games at home and the average combined score in those games was 52.75.  On the flip side, the total has gone OVER in four of New Orleans’ last six road games and the Saints average just under 25 points per game away from the Superdome. Look for this matchup to be a high-scoring affair.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Buffalo Bills were listed as 1.5-point underdogs at Bovada and other online sportsbooks, with the total listed at one point at 48.5.

OddsShark NFL prediction models pointed to a 28-16 result in favor of the Saints on Sunday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The New Orleans Saints will look to cover ATS vs their hosts on Sunday, as they are 5-3 versus the spread this season, while the Buffalo Bills are 4-2-2 ATS. New Orleans is 4-4 against the OVER/UNDER total, while Buffalo is 4-4 versus the number. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Buffalo vs New Orleans injuries news.

The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Bills rated this week at No. 20 and the Saints sitting at No. 4.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Buffalo Bills' No. 16-ranked offense (21.75 PPG) against a New Orleans Saints defense that ranks No. 9 at 19.38 PPG. The Bills passing attack has averaged 186.88 yards per game, less than the Saints give up through the air (210.5 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Saints feature the league's No. 26-rated road run defense, allowing 125 yards per game. The Bills, meanwhile, rank No. 2 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

New Orleans cruised to victory in its last outing, as they ran up a 30-10 score against Tampa Bay at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Last time out, Buffalo got 2 scoring strikes from Tyrod Taylor in a 34-21 loss against New York.

Betting Trends
  • New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
  • New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans' last 6 games when playing Buffalo
  • New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
  • Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
  • Buffalo is 6-9-3 ATS in its last 18 games

Next Betting Matchups

New Orleans home to Washington, Sunday, November 19
Buffalo at Los Angeles, Sunday, November 19