After watching Saquon Barkley rush for a paltry 28 yards and New York lose its starting center against the Cowboys, it’s evident the betting public has seen enough, spoken with their wallets and are selling all shares of the Giants, effective immediately. Week 3’s matchup between the Giants and Texans opened Sunday evening with home team Houston favored by 3.5 points. By Monday morning, bettors had punished that line so much that it grew to Texans -6 to -7 depending on the sportsbook. The Giants moneyline opened +165 before eclipsing +200. The O/U total is 41.
- The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Texans’ last 10 games in September.
- The Giants are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with losing records.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Giants’ last nine games (avg. combined score: 34.89).
WATSON WORKING WITH A FULL(ER) HOUSE
In the four regular-season games Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller shared a field last season, the receiver caught 13 passes on 22 targets for 279 yards with seven touchdowns. Watson completed 62 percent of his passes in those contests, averaged 293 passing yards, threw 16 touchdowns and five interceptions, and posted QB ratings north of 103.0 in each.
In four games without Fuller, including the 2018 season opener against New England, Watson’s QB rating dipped to 73.1.
So, wouldn’t you know it, with Fuller back in the starting lineup in Week 2 at Tennessee, Watson looked a lot more comfortable as he completed 22 of 32 passes for 310 yards, two touchdowns and a 107.6 QB rating. Not only does Fuller lift Watson’s game, but he provides some relief for DeAndre Hopkins. Against the Titans, the wide receiver tandem combined for 14 receptions on 20 targets for 223 yards and two touchdowns.
Watson will no doubt face a stiff test in Week 3 because as bad as the Giants are as a team, their secondary is among the best in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks are completing less than 59 percent of their passes and the Giants secondary has surrendered only 164 passing yards per game and 5.8 yards per attempt, which rank in the NFL’s top three.
So, don’t be surprised if we see a little more balanced offensive attack from the Texans.
Speaking of rushing …
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: MILLER’S TIME TO SHINE
Lamar Miller has looked great the first two weeks of the season. The seventh-year back out of Miami is averaging 4.9 yards per rush on 34 attempts. He toted the rock 20 times in Week 1 against the Patriots. The higher volume may have been due to Fuller’s absence because with the receiver back in the lineup for Week 2, Miller finished with only 14 carries.
All things considered, Miller has not been overused through his first six seasons. He’s averaging 190 rush attempts per season and only 12.5 per game. I’m one who believes he could handle a larger workload but learned that wouldn’t help Texans backers on game days.
Since Miller joined Houston two seasons ago, the Texans are 13-11 straight up and 13-10-1 against the spread when he rushes 20 or more times.
It’s too bad because the Giants front seven is allowing 5.2 yards per rush and 137.5 rush yards per game.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: BALL HOG BECKHAM
Social media was abuzz after rookie running back Saquon Barkley finished with 14 receptions for ONLY 80 yards against the Cowboys. According to Pro Football Reference, he’s the only running back since 1999 to haul in 14 or more receptions for 80 or fewer yards. Not great.
With that said, Barkley and the entire Giants receiving corps should eat well as the Texans pass defense is ripe for the picking. Top defensive back Kevin Johnson was placed on IR due to a concussion, meaning Odell Beckham will have a better matchup. However, I was surprised to learn that when Eli Manning overfeeds ODB, it doesn’t necessarily translate into betting success for those backers of the Giants.
When Beckham finishes with six or more receptions, the Giants are only 12-18 straight up and 14-15-1 against the spread. Now, these records are also a byproduct of a subpar Giants defense and horrendous O-line, which in turn has led to inefficient rushing attacks since Beckham joined the G-Men.
MY PICK
Granted, the Titans were missing two stud offensive linemen in Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan, but with Jadeveon Clowney inactive, the Texans front seven held the Titans rush attack to a measly 2.9 yards per attempt. Through two weeks, the unit has allowed 3.4 yards per attempt and no rushing touchdowns. So, with the Giants missing their starting center and the offensive line a continuous work-in-progress, expect Houston to keep Barkley contained.
Though it’s challenging to glean useful betting intel when analyzing Blaine Gabbert’s stats, the understaffed Texans secondary can be exploited. Eli Manning nearly hit the backdoor cover Sunday night and with Beckham, Sterling Shepard and tight end/wide receiver Evan Engram all healthy, the same could happen in Houston. Seriously, watch for Engram to have a big game, as Rob Gronkowski torched the Texans for 123 yards on seven receptions.
Give me the Giants +6.5.
